Not much.

Not that we expected much change for a team who was really good last year, losing to the Lakers in a series that they probably should have been able to win.

So what should we expect this year.

PG – Deron Williams
SG – Ronnie Brewer
SF – C.J. Miles
PF – Carlos Boozer
C – Mehmet Okur

I actually really like this lineup from an offensive standpoint, but I don’t believe that this unit will be able to accomplish much on defense. Williams is not a bad defender, but he certainly isn’t spectacular. Boozer and Okur really aren’t very good defensively, although against certain opponents they can be effective enough. Miles is an unknown. Brewer obviously a very good, especially for how young he is. His steals numbers speak for themselves.

What this really means is that they will have to rotate very well and play very good team defense or they are not going to be able to win on the road. Considering how poorly they played on the road this past season, they are going to have a difficult time this season, especially in the post-season.

The second unit is going to be a little more fuzzy, but knowing Jerry Sloan, I would expect a second team of:

PG – Brevin Knight
SG – Kyle Korver
SF – Andrei Kirilenko
PF – Paul Millsap
C – Jarron Collins

Although Ronnie Price is a fan favorite, Sloan will probably prefer steady experience and fantastic assist-to-turnover ratio over Ronnie Price’s speed and much better shooting. With Korver, Kirilenko, and Millsap on the floor, a good distributor like Knight will be a great asset. If those three struggle shooting, though, expect a quick look to bring in Harping, Almond, or Price to improve the shooting of the second unit. Jazz fans tend to bad mouth Jarron Collins, but Collins is a great center for the price, and he plays excellent position defense on opposing centers.

As far as defense goes, the second unit is much tougher than the first unit. Knight is a very good defender with a large amount of steals per 48 minutes every year. Kirilenko is one of the best defenders in the leagues if he wants to be. And also is a very good defensive center. Millsap isn’t a bad defender, though he is a bit short against some of the large power forwards in the league. And Korver honestly isn’t a horrible defender, although he has been much maligned over his career.

The third unit would then be (not that they will get much time):

PG – Ronnie Price
SG – Matt Harpring
SF – Morris Almond
PF – (Andrei Kirilenko sliding over to play PF)
C – Kyrylo Fesenko or Kosta Koufos (depend on who Sloan thinks is the readiest at the moment)

Despite a very real possibility that there will be no available playing time for these players, you still have a really good team at this level.

Price is good, though at times a little out of control. Nobody can fault his timely shooting touch, though.

Harpring has lost a step, but he is still tough and a good team leader.

Almond can really shoot the ball — from everywhere on the court — and he is really working on his defense.

Two more big but inexperienced centers could get some time if Boozer or Okur get in early foul trouble. When you watch Fesenko, you hope that he can get some playing time because his height and energy could be a huge asset to the Jazz lineup. He was certainly worth the risk of picking him up in the second round and signing him to a contract, for potential alone. Hopefully the Jazz can develop Fesenko and Koufos because both of them could make for very good centers in the next couple of years.

The main reason that they said they chose to match the offer sheet was that they had invested 3 years in him and they figured that he was now at the point where he knew the system and could start making a valuable contribution.

Jazz fans and sportswriters are likely scratching their heads at this decision. They invested a lot in BYU product Rafael Araujo, but they let him go.

There has got to be a little more to this story than just “return on investment”.

Let’s take a look at things a little bit closer.

Here are the facts (involving C.J. Miles):

1. The Utah Jazz have plenty of money to play the annual amount of the Miles contract over the upcoming year. The big problem comes in year 2 when they are going to have to give extensions and raises to some almost all of their key guys.
2. The Utah Jazz have enough room on the roster for C.J. Miles (just barely).
3. C.J. Miles knows the Jazz system.
4. The Jazz, with the current lineup, might be good enough to win it all next year. They were very close this year.

Here are the Utah Jazz salaries (as near as we can guess) for 2009-2010:

Andrei Kirilenko – $16.5 million
Deron Williams – ~$15 million
Matt Harpring – $6.5 million
Kyle Korver – $5.2 million
C.J. Miles – ~$3 million
Ronnie Brewer – $2.7 million
Kosta Koufos – $1.2 million
Morris Almond – $1.1 million
Kryrylo Fesenko – $0.8 million

For approximately $52 million (I had to guess on the new contracts for Williams and Miles)

FYI, the salary cap for that year will probably be right around $60 million, leaving just $8 million to spend to stay under the cap.

If you haven’t noticed, you still aren’t paying Boozer, Okur, Jarron Collins, Brevin Knight, Ronnie Price, and Paul Millsap, all of whom are free agents or can opt-out after this year.

You will probably have to pay Carlos Boozer near the $15 million that you offered Deron Williams. Okur and Millsap might well command $10 million salaries based on what Andris Biedrins and Monta Ellis got from Golden State.

And that doesn’t count trying to keep Collins, Knight, and Price who luckily would come in at much more pedestrian $2 million per year each.

What are the Jazz planning?

I’m really not sure, but the numbers certainly don’t add up after this year.

Perhaps they are trying for one last hurrah before the team has to go its separate ways for salary cap reasons. They certainly could let Boozer, Okur, and Millsap depart after next season and be just fine. They aren’t under any sort of contract to keep them (as long as Boozer and Okur opt-out of their contracts, as they are expected to do). If they let them all go and move Kirilenko to the 4, they would have Williams at the 1, Brewer/Korver/Miles/Harpring/Almond (at the 2 and 3), Kirilenko at the 4, and Koufos/Fesenko at the 5. Certainly not a championship-caliber team, but with Williams at the helm, it is certainly one that could win a lot of games. By re-signing Jaron Collins for a couple of million per year, they have someone to sub at center and power forward (and a similar argument could be made to keep Price and/or Knight on to back up Williams at PG), without surpassing the Salary Cap.

Perhaps they are planning on trading some of their salaries after next year. Matt Harpring’s expiring $6.5 million would definitely be tradeable, but would probably involve receiving other long-term salaries in return unless they can work some deals involving draft picks (like the Nuggets did for Marcus Camby this year). A more likely scenario would be that Harpring’s salary is used to grab some good player that took the mid-level exception from a championship caliber team, but now the team wants to get involved in the Lebron/Wade/Bosh sweepstakes and has to cut salary fast.

Perhaps they think they can find a taker for Andrei Kirilenko’s whopping contract. Since they would likely have to take back contracts in return, however, that doesn’t seem like it would help the situation out unless the trade happened this year instead of next — and involved $16 million in expiring contracts. Kirilenko is a great defensive player and an energy guy that almost every team needs (but just not necessarily for the nearly $50 million and three years left on his contract).

Perhaps Larry H. Miller is willing to venture into Luxury Tax territory and re-sign most of these guys, if they are competing for championships year after year. Larry has certainly mentioned in the past that he would be willing to do that for a championship-caliber team.

Maybe the Jazz wanted C.J.’s contract to be possibly involved in a trade later on. Rather than giving him away for nothing, they can use his rather manageable contract packaged within another trade to make the numbers match, if they need to. Just because they signed him, doesn’t mean that they can never trade him. They just have to wait a period of time before his contract becomes tradeable, and that would happen sometime before the trade deadline.

Well, everybody has their ideas on who the Jazz might select with that pick, so we’ll take a look at what the Utah Jazz need and might be able to get.

Apparently lots of people think the Utah Jazz need a big center.

Let’s see if we agree.

Point Guard: Deron Williams, backups Ronnie Price, Jason Hart
Shooting Guard: Ronnie Brewer, backups Kyle Korver, Morris Almond
Small Forward: Andrei Kirilenko, backups Matt Harpring, CJ Miles (free agent)
Power Forward: Carlos Boozer, backups Paul Millsap
Center: Mehmet Okur, backups Jarron Collins, Kyrylo Fesenko

After Boozer and Okur, you’ve got three “bigs”: Millsap (small for a power forward), Collins (a perennial backup), and Fesenko (up and down his rookie year in the D-league).

Alright.

I agree.

But can you really get a center worth taking with the twenty-third pick in the NBA Draft.

Normally, you can’t. Centers go much faster than people think they will because of the old adages “you can’t teach size” and “if you are going to make an error, err big”.

This year people think that the Jazz not only have a chance at a center, but will end up with one.

Let’s take a look at some of the centers who the Jazz might have a chance at…

Kevin Love – C – UCLA

Predicted in almost every draft to go in the lottery, but the Jazz might always be able to trade up to get him. Here is the information from CollegeHoopsNet on him.

Kosta Koufos – C – Ohio State

Koufos is all over the place in mock drafts, from near the top of the draft all the way down to where the Jazz pick. Some scouts are high on him. Others are not. I tend to think that someone will draft “big” because it is safe, and he won’t fall anywhere near where the Jazz are picking. Here is the information from CollegeHoopsNet on him.

DeAndre Jordan – PF/C – Texas A&M

Like Love, Jordan is predicted to be a lottery pick in most drafts, and won’t be available for the Utah Jazz unless they move up. Here is the information from CollegeHoopsNet on him.

Ante Tomic – C – KK Zagreb

Likely to be available for the Jazz, but he is essentially the same as Okur and Fesenko. He likely doesn’t fill the need of a really big guy down low, taking up paint and preventing other big men from getting easy hoops. Here is the information from CollegeHoopsNet on him.

Robin Lopez – C – Stanford

Nobody knows how good he good be because he played in the shadow of his brother Brook at Stanford. All indications are that he would be a pretty good pick for the Jazz here if he is available. According to most drafts, Robin is likely to be available for the Jazz at the 23rd pick. I’m a bit skeptical because lots of centers get nabbed up much earlier than mock drafts predict. Here is the information from CollegeHoopsNet on him.

Roy Hibbert – C – Georgetown

Just about everybody has the Jazz picking Roy Hibbert. If he is available here (and most drafts say that he will be), he would be a good center to pick up with the 23rd pick. He is probably the biggest center in the draft with any kind of prowess at all. Like I said with Lopez, I kind of doubt that so many teams will pick a smaller player when there is a center available (even though all of the mock drafts are telling you that they will). Here is the information from CollegeHoopsNet on him.

Joey Dorsey – PF/C – Memphis
DeVon Hardin – PF/C – California

These players are both predicted to go into the second round, and it is doubtful that the Jazz would reach down so far to nab one of them. If all of the other better centers have already been taken, they would probably be more likely to trade into the second round to take one of them rather than use their first round pick on either of them. Second round picks offer more flexibility as well as far as contracts go.

Where should the Jazz go from here?

Old Personnel

The Starters

1. Deron Williams
• Make sure they keep him. Deron Williams was one of the elite point guards of the season and of the playoffs. He has a drive to win that will only get hungrier in defeat to a Lakers team that the Jazz should have been able to beat.
• Improved free throw shooting would definitely be a plus to his game, especially with the driving to the basket that he can do to punish smaller point guards.
2. Carlos Boozer
• Boozer isn’t likely to go anywhere. He plays the right kind of style for the Jazz offense as well, so Jazz fans should not really want him to go anywhere, either.
• Anybody that watched the playoffs, though, could easily see a huge flaw in his game. He couldn’t finish a shot where he was fouled. Whether it is called or not, Boozer has to be able to make those shots. Those are potential three point plays that never happened, or points where the referee’s lack of a whistle would not affect the outcome of the game.
3. Andrei Kirilenko
• Kirilenko has to get his defensive fire back. His timely three pointers at the end of game 6 against the Lakers were helpful, and his improved shooting from all over the court made it difficult for the defense to lag off of him. Is he worth what the Jazz are paying him? He is if he can do defensively what he did before to earn that contract.
4. Mehmet Okur
• Keep him. He spreads the floor and is very difficult for opposing centers to guard, since he is hanging around the three point line.
• The offense is already used to how he plays, and you want to keep the same team together to help it to continue to improve. Teams that change their starters often don’t ever do very well.
5. Ronnie Brewer
• Only in his second year, Ronnie Brewer showed a very real ability to finish around the basket, even in the playoffs.
• And nobody can argue with his huge steal numbers. He was at the top of the NBA and was able to get the Jazz a lot of easy buckets with his long arms and quick feet.
• Improved ability to guard the top shooting guards in the league would make him invaluable to the team.
• The Jazz will be able to keep him for at least a couple more years while under a low paying rookie contract.

That’s a great starting five. Nobody in the Jazz organization will very likely want to mess them up.

The Bench

1. Paul Millsap
• Millsap’s excellent play is going to make it very hard to keep him. He’d be a great sixth man to keep coming off the bench, but other teams would likely be willing to overpay for his upside. Utah should obviously try to keep him if they can, but his lack of size make it difficult to justify keeping him over Boozer, even though Millsap is a better finisher when fouled.
2. Kyle Korver
• Utah was much improved after Korver came. An entire year with Korver might likely yield a better playoff seed and perhaps a better shot at a championship.
• His play in the playoffs has been suspect, both at Utah and in Philadelphia, but as a sixth man that probably isn’t quite as important as it might be otherwise. That would especially be true if his stellar play during the regular season could get the Jazz a one seed in the Western Conference, a very real possibility.
3. Ronnie Price
• Keep him. Ronnie Price isn’t likely to get a ton of time, but he came out as the better of the two backups to Deron Williams. Improved decision making skills would definitely be a plus when he is giving Williams a breather. His timely three point shots at the ends of quarters definitely makes him a guy that you want to keep around, especially for the salary that the Jazz would be willing to pay him.
4. Everybody Else
• Honestly, the rest of the players are expendable for the right deal.
• Obviously Morris Almond and Kyrylo Fesenko are likely to stay around with their good to average play in the NBDL and the low amount owed them on their rookie contract.
• Jarron Collins will likely hang around for another year because nobody else is really willing to offer him anything more than he is currently making in Utah. He is a big body and a known commodity for Jerry Sloan.
• Matt Harpring is too injury prone for anyone else to steal him away from Utah, and Jerry Sloan likes his style. He’s a good stabilizing influence in the locker room, as well.
• That leaves CJ Miles and Jason Hart who are likely to make way for two more rookies to join the squad.

New Personnel

• With such a young team, the Jazz would probably be better off keeping their squad together and trading their draft picks, especially with Morris Almond and Kyrylo Fesenko development a high priority already.
• With a decent chance at a center in the NBA Draft, the Jazz are more likely to nab at least one more rookie (the Georgetown center will likely be available at that pick)
• Any rookie pick would mean leaving Miles or Hart out in the cold unless the Jazz opt for 15 men on the roster (which they rarely do for trading flexibility reasons).

They didn’t make too many off-season moves, but they didn’t really need to make too many either. They have a nice core of Carlos Boozer, Deron Williams, and Mehmet Okur, and some other great players including veterans Matt Harpring and Andrei Kirilenko, and second round surprise Paul Millsap.

The big question that every Jazz fan is asking himself or herself this year is “Will the Jazz be better this year?”

Acquisitions verses Losses

Jason Hart and Ronnie Price are likely to be better than Deron Williams previous backups of Derek Fisher and Dee Brown, but not by too much. They could grow into excellent backups, but they are not likely to be much better than Fisher was backing up Williams (when he wasn’t starting at shooting guard). It’s not likely that their play off the bench will influence games that much anyway, except by giving Deron long enough breathers that he can be effective at the end of games.

Rookies Morris Almond and Kryrylo Fessenko are not likely to play at all, unless you happen to be attending the Development League games 50 miles to the south of Energy Solutions Arena.

Current Player Improvement

Deron Williams, Mehmet Okur, and Andrei Kirilenko played over the summer. Deron Williams probably gained the most from this, and that should be a real asset to the Point Guard Heavy offense of Jerry Sloan. Okur didn’t play well over the summer. Kirilenko was fantastic, but he didn’t really do anything that we didn’t already know he could do.

Gordan Giricek, likely to be the starting shooting guard, is said to be in great shape. Whether this translates into more consistency or not remains to be seen, but he has always been a good shooter, at least in spurts. A more consisten Giricek would be a very good thing. Add to that the fact that he is in his contract year, and we may be fine even though we missed out on picking up Morris Peterson.

Ronnie Brewer, the likely backup to Giricek, is said to have made the largest improvement in the offseason and all Jazz fans hope that to be the case. Whether coming off the bench or starting at shooting guard, Ronnie Brewer could potentially provide the atheletic scoring the the Jazz have long tried to acquire — but never successfuly.

Paul Millsap already played very well in the Rocky Mountain Review, garnering MVP honors. He is likely to be even better this year than he was last year, and that would be extremely helpful.

Answering the Question

Will the Jazz be better this year?

Yes. The Utah Jazz should be a much improved team over a stellar year last year, especially assuming that they can give Kirilenko some love.

Will that translate into a 60+ win season and an easy return to the Western Conference Finals?

Not necessarily.

The Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs are likely to still be better than the Utah Jazz.

The Phoenix Suns should still be extremely potent. The Jazz didn’t have much trouble with them last year and are likely not to have any more trouble this year — even though just about every other team in the league will not be quite so fortunate.

The Houston Rockets made some significant improvements as well, and they were pretty even with the Jazz last year. Whether they leap-frogged the Jazz in the standings remains to be seen, but they should make it difficult for the Jazz to even be in the top 4 (record-wise) in the West. Of course, everybody is still going to wonder if Tracy McGrady can win a playoff series.

Other teams in the West also made improvements, but none are likely to be significant enough to have overtaken the Jazz.

Conclusion

The Jazz should be much better this year.

Their bench, if nothing else, should be much improved with the development of Brewer and Millsap, the additions of Hart and Price, and the continued hard work of Matt Harpring and Jaron Collins anchoring it.

Whether that translates into a more successful season than last year’s miracle run remains to be seen.