Carlos Boozer out. Al Jefferson in.

I don’t know that Al Jefferson is that much better than Carlos Boozer, but I see this as a huge win for the Utah Jazz in just about every way.

1. Most of the population grudgingly accepted Carlos Boozer’s talent, even if they didn’t like the guy. Currently everyone loves Al Jefferson because he was the guy that made sure that we got something when Boozer left.
2. Al Jefferson can’t be more injury prone than Boozer, can he?
3. Al Jefferson price tag is much better to handle than Boozer’s new salary.
4. Al Jefferson can finish at the rim much better than Boozer. Boozer could make the free throws when he got fouled, but it seems like he rarely made the basket as he was fouled.
5. Al Jefferson has more length.
6. Al Jefferson’s close-to-the-hoop, back-to-the-basket game seems like it will complement Mehmet Okur’s long distance game better.
7. Nobody has Al Jefferson Utah Jazz jerseys yet.
8. Al Jefferson seems genuinely excited to be here. After being it the cold north of Minnesota on a losing team with a coach constantly in flux, how couldn’t you be?

Wes Matthews out. Raja Bell in.

There is definitely some give and take. Money-wise the Utah Jazz really shouldn’t and couldn’t do it. Matthews had a great rookie year as an undrafted free agent, but so did Marquis Daniels, who also got a great contract and faded into oblivion. Portland really shouldn’t have and couldn’t have done it either, but they did anyway. It was great hearing from some of the Portland fans who said, “Wes Matthews was our big offseason?!?” Wesley Matthews will likely be getting limited minutes for Portland, but he certainly does have a fat wallet. He had earned a big payday, but I’m pretty sure he hadn’t earned THAT big a payday. The Jazz felt similarly.

1. Huge price difference. Similar current talent levels.
2. Wes Matthews is getting better after a stellar rookie season. Raja Bell is getting worse as his legs get older.
3. Raja Bells has experience. Wes Matthews has upside.

Kosta Koufos out. Francisco Elson in.

Kosta wasn’t bad for a young guy. Francisco Elson seems to be a better fit for the Jazz, especially on the defensive end of the court. With Fesenko as the Jazz young center trying to get better, a veteran presence in Elson seems a much better fit than trying to bring along two very young centers at the same time, even though they really do have different skill sets.

Earl Watson in.

This move seems similar to when the Jazz brought in Brevin Knight, a savvy veteran to back up Deron Williams. Earl Watson has a better offensive game, however, so this might turn out much better than the Brevin Knight experiment. Watson isn’t likely to see a ton of time unless Williams gets injured, but I think I’d much rather have Watson running the show in that case than the erratic but exciting Ronnie Price. Currently Sundiata Gaines is still on the roster, but I can’t see the Jazz really wanting to carry four point guards — I’m not sure if that means Gaines is on his way out or if they consider the small price tag on Gaines worth carrying him for a time.

Kyle Korver out. Gordon Hayward in.

I’m still not sure about this pick. It certainly seems safe, but I don’t know how much upside he really has besides gaining more experience to position himself in the proper place on the floor. This almost seems like a preemptive replacement of Andrei Kirilenko, without the defensive ability. Kyle Korver’s lack of post-season shooting seems like it might not be a great loss, even though the Jazz are really likely to be missing him during the regular season. Hayward certainly isn’t going to match what Korver could do in a catch-and-shoot situation, nor is he likely to be that much better defensively. This really just means that Andrei and CJ aren’t going to be splitting so many minutes.

Jeremy Evans

He isn’t guaranteed to make the roster, but I think there is a lot more talk about this young man than there is about anybody else on the team, including Al Jefferson who should be the talk of the team. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t make the team. Even if the Jazz decide to cut their roster to 13 players, you have to think the Othyus Jeffers and Sundiata Gaines would be the players to cut as opposed to Evans, who is earning rave reviews from his teammates.

Summary

For the short term, I think the Jazz should be fielding an even better team than they have in the post-Stockton to Malone era. They have improved their defense with Raja Bell, Francisco Elson, Al Jefferson, and Earl Watson. They have improved their experience with the aforementioned Bell, Elson, and Watson. With Okur injured, they’ll be a little short of big bodies, but when they are back at full strength, their lineup (on paper at least) seems even better than the team a few years back that went to the conference finals. With the loss of Korver, it seems like they are a little short in the backup shooting guard department with either Ronnie Price or Earl Watson having to slide over to play the position. You could also put CJ Miles at SG giving some time to Gordon Hayward at the three, but CJ seems much more of a three than a two.

Predicted First Unit when healthy.

1. Deron Williams – PG
2. Raja Bell – SG
3. Andrei Kirilenko – SF
4. Al Jefferson – PF
5. Mehmet Okur – C

Predicted Second Unit

1. Earl Watson – PG
2. Ronnie Price – SG
3. CJ Miles – SF
4. Paul Millsap – PF
5. Francisco Elson – C

Other likely substitutions:
Gordon Hayward – SG/SF, Kryrylo Fesenko – C

I bring it to people’s attention on this day, Monday, March 8, 2010, because of the results regarding the Utah Jazz.

Here are some of the interesting results for today:

• The Utah Jazz are not picked to win the division. Denver is. (38.7% vs 52.1%)
• Despite not winning the division, the Utah Jazz have the highest odds in the Western Conference of getting to the NBA Finals (21.8%) and winning the NBA Championship (11.3%).
• • For those who are interested, the Lakers have a (21.6%) chance of getting to the NBA Finals, and only a 9.4% chance of winning it all.
  • The top two teams, percentage-wise, are from the Eastern Conference: Cleveland and Orlando.
  • Phoenix is considered, by the algorithm, to be the third best team in the Western Conference, before both the Denver Nuggets and the Dallas Mavericks.
• The Jazz have a 9.7% chance of winning the NBA Lottery (with the New York Knicks’ pick).

The fact that these results are based on algorithms that look at real stats in no way indicates that these results will actually happen.

Of course, we can all hope.

In the time that I’ve taken off, the Jazz have gone from being a .500 team and a perennial loser on the road to being a winner more often than not — at home and on the road. Heck, so far in 2010 they’ve been one of the top teams in the NBA.

They’ve traded Matt Harpring, Eric Maynor, and Ronnie Brewer in two different trades.

The trade of Matt Harpring and Eric Maynor made a lot of sense. In fact, I’m not sure why the draft pick that became Eric Maynor wasn’t traded during the NBA Draft.

The Ronnie Brewer trade also made a lot of sense. With the resurgent Carlos Boozer, Kyle Korver, Wesley Matthews, and other players becoming free agents at the end of the season, Ronnie Brewer was not likely going to get the contract of a starting shooting guard (which his agent has indicated that he feels that he is worth). The Jazz really wouldn’t have been willing to pay that kind of money, especially when it appears that they have their shooting guard spot slotted for Wesley Matthews rather than Brewer. Knowing that Ronnie wasn’t going to really be pursued at the end of the season, they decided to cut bait now — and get a first round draft pick in the bargain. It’s probably for the best for Ronnie Brewer as well.

The Utah Jazz still appear to have problems playing down to mediocre teams — including the recent loss to the Sacramento Kings and tonight’s loss to the Los Angeles Clippers, especially on the road.

Of course, they won’t be playing against mediocre teams in the playoffs, so maybe it really doesn’t matter if they can beat these teams or not — except for the seeding from the regular season win-loss record.

Coming up soon, the Jazz will have to sign a free agent to replace Ronnie Brewer. According to the Collective Bargaining Agreement, the Jazz have to carry 13 players on their active roster, and by trading Brewer for a first round draft pick, they have dropped back down to only 12 players. It remains to be seen whether the Jazz will sign a savvy veteran to help anchor a young ball club or whether they will give another young D-Leaguer (a la Sundiata Gaines) a chance to make the Jazz roster.

My estimation so far is not very far. Into the playoffs, if they’re lucky. Outside looking in if they aren’t.

First of all, what problems have they had in the past.

• They can’t win on the road.
• They have trouble winning close games.
• Recently, they have had trouble with injuries.

What problems have they had this year?

• They are not winning on the road, even against chumps like the Sacramento Kings.
• They are rolling over in the fourth quarter if the team is putting up much of a fight.
• Kyle Korver and CJ Miles, two of their top 8 players, are injured, and Okur has already missed a little time from injury as well.

The only team of the top nine teams in the West from last year that is looking equal to or worse than the Jazz at this point is the New Orleans Hornets. (And the jury is still out on San Antonio who I have seen start slow only to pour it on when it really mattered.)

Is there any hope?

I don’t think Kevin O’Connor is going to trade Boozer. His contract expiring is going to allow the Jazz to dive back under the salary cap. I don’t imagine any of the current Jazz players are going to suddenly get really good at defense.

On the other hand, I don’t think the Jazz are going to be nearly as injured as they were last year, when they managed to sneak in at the eighth spot. That means that although the Jazz aren’t going to be much better last year talent-wise, they ought to be much better as a team. That should translate into an offensive output much closer to two years ago, when they challenged for supremacy in the West, rather than last year.

Unfortunately for the Jazz, I don’t think that translates into the Western Conference finals. Their lack of offensive output on the road is going to be their downfall, and with much improved teams in the Northwest Division from two years ago (Portland and Denver), it is very likely that the Jazz will be in the seventh or eighth spot or our of the playoffs. With a road record as poor as theirs, it is not very likely that the Jazz will make it out of the first round let alone into the Western Conference finals.

Would I have done anything differently over the past offseason?

I would have traded Carlos Boozer to the Bobcats for Emeka Okafor, assuming that trade was actually out there. This would have given me a defensive power forward/center to play alongside of the offensive-minded Mehmet Okur. I’m not sure why O’Connor is determined to only give Jerry Sloan offensive players who Jerry has to convince to play defense.

I would have let Paul Millsap go to Portland. He’s a nice backup power forward, and I really love his hustle, but he’s really too small to be my starter.

Those moves would have likely made it difficult to keep Ronnie Brewer, and I would have to be okay with that. I’d try to keep Kyle Korver around to spread the floor, if I could. I think Korver is likely to come cheaper than Brewer, and with Okur on one side and Korver on the other, it’d be very hard to defend. My defense would essentially just be Emeka Okafor in the center and Andrei Kirilenko around the perimiter, and I’d be okay with that.

So to compare, here is the likely team for next year:

• Deron Williams
• Ronnie Brewer
• Andrei Kirilenko or CJ Miles
• Paul Millsap
• Mehmet Okur

Here is what I would have had:

• Deron Williams
• Kyle Korver or CJ Miles
• Andrei Kirilenko
• Emeka Okafor
• Mehmet Okur

If defense helps you win road games and playoff games, I have to say that I’d win more road games next year (and this year for that matter) than what the Utah Jazz are likely to win for the next couple of years.

1. Can the Jazz can be a Championship contender with Paul Millsap as their starting power forward?
2. Team-wise, offensively and defensively, who is better Paul Millsap or Carlos Boozer?
3. Who should the Jazz be playing at shooting guard and small forward for next year? Do they need to upgrade either or both of those positions to compete for a title?

Analyzing the statistics, here is how things break down.

The top 2 Utah lineups for minutes played really weren’t very good.

The lineup that played the most minutes, by far, was Deron Williams, Ronnie Brewer, C.J. Miles, Paul Millsap, and Mehmet Okur. Opponents outscored this lineup overall, though just barely. Opponents also outrebounded the lineup defensively, but were outrebounded by the Jazz offensively. In all, this lineup was only slightly worse than its opponents.

The second most popular lineup minute-wise was Deron Williams, Ronnie Brewer, C.J. Miles, Carlos Boozer, and Mehmet Okur. This one was slightly better than the most popular lineup. It barely outscored its competition and barely rebounded more than its opponents on the defensive end. It did significantly outrebound its opponents on the offensive end. In all, this lineup was only slightly better than its opponents.

With these two examples, it doesn’t appear that the controversy should really be between Boozer and Millsap, as we have been led to believe. Neither one of them appears to have affected the team greatly.

When you get outside of the top two lineups, things improve by a lot.

The third most popular lineup included Deron Williams, Kyle Korver, Andrei Kirilenko, Paul Millsap, Mehmet Okur. This lineup outscored its opponents by 23%. It also defensively rebounded much better than its opponents, and the offensive rebounds were about equal.

In other words, swapping in Kyle Korver for Brewer and Kirilenko for C.J. Miles appeared to significantly improve the lineup. So who was it that affected things, Korver or Kirilenko? Or was it the two of them?

Let’s keep going…

The fourth most popular lineup was Deron Williams, Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer, Paul Millsap, Mehmet Okur. With this lineup, the Jazz drop off significantly in offensive rebounds vs their opponents, but significantly improve in defensive rebounding. They also continue to score at a decent pace, slightly less than third most popular lineup.

The only different between this lineup and the most popular lineup is the insertion of Kyle Korver into the lineup in place of C.J. Miles.

If we go down for a few more lineups (and include the previous lineups) we see the following general statements about the top ten lineups:

1. Deron Williams, Ronnie Brewer, C.J. Miles, Paul Millsap, Mehmet Okur – Slightly below even
2. Deron Williams, Ronnie Brewer, C.J. Miles, Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur – Slightly above even
3. Deron Williams, Kyle Korver, Andrei Kirilenko, Paul Millsap, Mehmet Okur – Very Good
4. Deron Williams, Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer, Paul Millsap, Mehmet Okur – Good
5. Brevin Knight, Kyle Korver, Matt Harpring, Andrei Kirilenko, Paul Millsap – Good
6. Ronnie Price, Ronnie Brewer, C.J. Miles, Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur – Bad
7. Brevin Knight, Kyle Korver, Andrei Kirilenko, Paul Millsap, Mehmet Okur – Very Good
8. Deron Williams, Ronnie Brewer, Andrei Kirilenko, Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur – Very Bad
9. Deron Williams, Kyle Korver, Andrei Kirilenko, Paul Millsap, Carlos Boozer – Slight above even
10. Deron Williams, Ronnie Brewer, C.J. Miles, Andrei Kirilenko, Mehmet Okur – Good
11. Deron Williams, Ronnie Brewer, Andrei Kirilenko, Paul Millsap, Mehmet Okur – Good

For the most part, all of the lineups that included C.J. Miles were about even with the other team or worse, except for when Andrei Kirilenko was playing the power forward.

For the most part, the lineups that included Kyle Korver or Andrei Kirilenko were good to very good, except for when they were too small and had Carlos Boozer paying center and ,ironically, the lineup of Deron Williams, Ronnie Brewer, Andrei Kirilenko, Carlos Boozer, and Mehmet Okur, that was the lineup that I thought would have been the best one Utah could have put out there.

If you continue to look down through more and more lineups, you discover the following apparent truths:

1. C.J. Miles is generally inferior to any of the other possible starters at small forward, namely Kyle Korver and Andrei Kirilenko.
2. Kyle Korver is a real asset to the Jazz, especially when Mehmet Okur is playing center, but not necessarily when Boozer is also in the lineup (apparently that is far too little defense all around).
3. Carlos Boozer can’t play center.
4. Andrei Kirilenko is a real asset to the Jazz in most cases, especially when playing power forward.
5. Ronnie Price wasn’t a huge dropoff from Deron Williams, especially considering that he was likely playing against a host of second string players on the other side during those minutes.

So what should the Jazz do?

From the statistics and likely scenarios that Jerry Sloan would truly be likely to pick from, the Jazz should really be doing the following:

• Starting Deron Williams, Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver, Paul Millsap, Mehmet Okur
• Bringing Andrei Kirilenko first off the bench to replace Kyle Korver, Paul Millsap, or Ronnie Brewer as needed
• Bringing Ronnie Price off the bench to spell Deron Williams as needed.
• Use C.J. Miles sparingly.
• Use Boozer sparingly, and never at center.

With the amount of money being paid to Boozer, it really doesn’t seem like Boozer makes a whole lot of sense, which isn’t what I would have suspected. It should be noted that I am using 2008-2009 numbers, where Boozer was never fully 100%.