My estimation so far is not very far. Into the playoffs, if they’re lucky. Outside looking in if they aren’t.

First of all, what problems have they had in the past.

• They can’t win on the road.
• They have trouble winning close games.
• Recently, they have had trouble with injuries.

What problems have they had this year?

• They are not winning on the road, even against chumps like the Sacramento Kings.
• They are rolling over in the fourth quarter if the team is putting up much of a fight.
• Kyle Korver and CJ Miles, two of their top 8 players, are injured, and Okur has already missed a little time from injury as well.

The only team of the top nine teams in the West from last year that is looking equal to or worse than the Jazz at this point is the New Orleans Hornets. (And the jury is still out on San Antonio who I have seen start slow only to pour it on when it really mattered.)

Is there any hope?

I don’t think Kevin O’Connor is going to trade Boozer. His contract expiring is going to allow the Jazz to dive back under the salary cap. I don’t imagine any of the current Jazz players are going to suddenly get really good at defense.

On the other hand, I don’t think the Jazz are going to be nearly as injured as they were last year, when they managed to sneak in at the eighth spot. That means that although the Jazz aren’t going to be much better last year talent-wise, they ought to be much better as a team. That should translate into an offensive output much closer to two years ago, when they challenged for supremacy in the West, rather than last year.

Unfortunately for the Jazz, I don’t think that translates into the Western Conference finals. Their lack of offensive output on the road is going to be their downfall, and with much improved teams in the Northwest Division from two years ago (Portland and Denver), it is very likely that the Jazz will be in the seventh or eighth spot or our of the playoffs. With a road record as poor as theirs, it is not very likely that the Jazz will make it out of the first round let alone into the Western Conference finals.

Would I have done anything differently over the past offseason?

I would have traded Carlos Boozer to the Bobcats for Emeka Okafor, assuming that trade was actually out there. This would have given me a defensive power forward/center to play alongside of the offensive-minded Mehmet Okur. I’m not sure why O’Connor is determined to only give Jerry Sloan offensive players who Jerry has to convince to play defense.

I would have let Paul Millsap go to Portland. He’s a nice backup power forward, and I really love his hustle, but he’s really too small to be my starter.

Those moves would have likely made it difficult to keep Ronnie Brewer, and I would have to be okay with that. I’d try to keep Kyle Korver around to spread the floor, if I could. I think Korver is likely to come cheaper than Brewer, and with Okur on one side and Korver on the other, it’d be very hard to defend. My defense would essentially just be Emeka Okafor in the center and Andrei Kirilenko around the perimiter, and I’d be okay with that.

So to compare, here is the likely team for next year:

• Deron Williams
• Ronnie Brewer
• Andrei Kirilenko or CJ Miles
• Paul Millsap
• Mehmet Okur

Here is what I would have had:

• Deron Williams
• Kyle Korver or CJ Miles
• Andrei Kirilenko
• Emeka Okafor
• Mehmet Okur

If defense helps you win road games and playoff games, I have to say that I’d win more road games next year (and this year for that matter) than what the Utah Jazz are likely to win for the next couple of years.

Here are a couple of trade scenarios that might work for the Jazz, especially considering that they Jazz have made it known that they have to trade Boozer (thus reducing the amount they can get from him).

With the Miami Heat

1. Carlos Boozer to Miami for Udonis Haslem and others (e.g. Chris Quinn, and Dorell Wright)

Miami probably makes out better in this deal, but Utah gets rid of Boozer, gets a capable PF in Haslem (who would probably be languishing on the bench behind Beasley and Boozer) and a nice backup for Deron Williams in Chris Quinn (since the Jazz want a third PG). Plus they save some money ($1.5 million) to help pay down the luxury tax. Because Quinn and Wright are so young, it’s hard to say who might get the better end of this deal.

This one might be plausible because Boozer has a lot of ties to Miami and Dwyane Wade has publicly said that he would like Miami management to go after Boozer.

With the Chicago Bulls

1. Carlos Boozer to Chicago for Tyrus Thomas and Tim Thomas.

Much has been said about the three-way trade, but an equally valid trade can be made with Chicago alone for Tyrus Thomas. The Jazz would save $1.4 million and would get back two power forwards in return to shore up their front line.

2. Carlos Boozer and CJ Miles for Brad Miller and Linton Johnson.

In a much more drastic cost-cutting maneuver, the Jazz could get Brad Miller and save $3 million. Miller is in the last year of his contract so he might be able to be re-signed next year for much less to help out in the post, or be let go.

The Jazz would definitely want to re-sign Millsap if they took this one, as Brad Miller is definitely not a long-term solution. He would provide toughness on the front line for as long as the Jazz could keep him, though.

With the Philadelphia 76ers

1. Carlos Boozer and CJ Miles for Samuel Dalembert and Jason Smith.

Another cost-cutting maneuver by the Jazz, saving them $3 million. This move also allows the Jazz to bring in a shot-blocker to play next to Okur and cover up for his deficiencies. If the 76ers threw in a draft pick or money, it might almost make it even.

The Jazz could do a smiliar move with the Phoenix Suns for Ben Wallace, but Ben Wallace is not as good as Dalembert, in my book.

With the Cleveland Cavaliers

1. Carlos Boozer for Zydrunas Ilgauskis

With the acquisition of Shaq, Ilguaskis is no longer needed. I’m not sure Okur and Ilgauskis are the best pairing, but Ilgauskis is 7′3″ and can block some shots. Heck, who knows? Maybe Okur, Ilgauskis, and Kirilenko are a perfect fit. Either way, I think it’s worth a try. The Jazz do save a little money on it, too, to help pay for Millsap.

I would think Cleveland would welcome the move, because it really makes them the favorite in the East, maybe even enough to throw in a draft pick to get it done.

This one probably wouldn’t happen, because of the history, but it makes perfect sense.

Since everybody else is getting into the trade rumor arena, I figured it was time for me to throw my hat over the wall.

The Jazz could easily trade Carlos Boozer and CJ Miles (or Matt Harpring) to the New York Knicks for David Lee (via sign-and-trade) and Jared Jeffries.

Why would the Utah Jazz do it?

They wouldn’t need Millsap at this point, but they could keep him on as a backup if they didn’t mind the hefty up-front price tag. (His next 3 years were much more reasonable.) They would have a bigger player to play power forward at a nice salary of $8-9 million per year. Jared Jeffries is another big body to help them out. Carlos Boozer, his history of injuries, and his bad locker room influence would be gone. They would have a nice nucleus of young players at most of their positions for several years to come.

Why would the New York Knicks do it?

Jared Jeffries is one of the last multi-year contracts that the Knicks have on the books going into next year. They’d be taking back a multi-year contract in CJ Miles, but it would be less money than Jeffries’ current contract. They would also get the Bird-rights to Carlos Boozer, and a lineup of Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, and Carlos Boozer would be devastating indeed (if they could actually woo Wade and James away from their respective teams). If they really wanted to shed all the multi-year contracts, they could probably persuade Utah to trade Matt Harpring instead of CJ Miles (especially in light of the fact that Harpring might just be retiring this year anyway).

The fact that they telegraphed this move before actually tying up their money by doing it makes me thing that it isn’t really going to happen.

As we all know, Kevin Pritchard did this once before, telling everyone that the Portland Trailblazers would sue any team who signed Darius Miles. When a team did, it didn’t lead to much.

I think Pritchard is full of hot air again.

Of course, it’s doubtful that the Blazers can really make it toxic enough that Utah couldn’t or wouldn’t match.

Carlos Boozer has one year left on his deal for $12.65 million.

Richard Hamilton has four years remaining on his deal, which will pay him $11.6 million this season, and $12.65 million each year for the next three years after that.

(Salaries according to HoopsHype.com)

Even straight up, my thoughts on this deal are that it is a good deal for both teams. (Probably why it actually became a rumor in the first place.)

Detroit Pistons

For Detroit, the Pistons just picked up Ben Gordon as their shooting guard. It’s hard to believe that they would want their two highest paid players to both play the same position. Even with Allen Iverson able to play some point guard, the Pistons have already proven that their Rip really can’t play with another shoot-first guard. With Ben Gordon rather weak at the point (Rodney Stuckey rumored to be their favorite to play the position), it isn’t likely that they will play both Gordon and Rip at the same time. With the trade of Chauncey Billups for Allen Iverson’s expiring contract, it appears that Detroit has already begun it’s youth movement. At 31, Rip Hamilton certainly doesn’t figure into that movement.

Whether Carlos Boozer figures into the long-term plans of the Pistons or not, the deal seems like a “can’t lose” for the Pistons. Knowing that the Pistons are likely more eager to make this trade, the Jazz might even try to weasel an extra first round draft pick out of them before they are willing to make this trade.

The Detroit Pistons starting lineup would likely be:

Rodney Stuckey, PG
Ben Gordon, SG
Tayshaun Prince, SF
Charlie Villanueva, PF
Carlos Boozer, C

Unless, of course, Prince comes off the bench and Villanueva and Boozer are moved to SF and PF respectively. Bother players would probably be more comfortable playing those positions, but they might not have that luxury. Kwame Brown would then likely be the center with Prince being the first man off the bench. (Antonio McDyess is rumored to be going elsewhere, and Rasheed Wallace has already agreed to sign with the Celtics.)

Utah Jazz

The Utah Jazz (with Korver, Boozer, and Okur all opting into their contracts) find themselves with three very good expiring contracts. Add Matt Harpring’s contract into that mix, and they certainly have a lot of good trade pieces that teams might want, especially if they are trying to cut costs in advance of 2010. Of course, the Jazz would have to really examine the contracts that they were taking back in return and deciding whether the players really fit into their plan of fitting pieces around Deron Williams in order to create a championship contender. It certainly doesn’t make any sense for them to take back expiring contracts or bad contracts for mediocre players in exchange for their current pieces.

My feeling is that Okur isn’t going anywhere. The things that he has said about his desire to remain with the Jazz, even if they can’t pay him the most, is exactly what the organization and the fans want to hear. In fact, I think the Jazz would be fools to not try to keep him if that’s his attitude.

Considering the Boozer is a 20-10 guy without breaking much of a sweat, I’d personally rather have a healthy Boozer over Okur and to have a shot-blocking center in place of Okur. Considering the fact that Boozer is not likely to play more than 60 games per year (because of injury) and considering the fact that shot-blocking centers are hard to come by in the NBA, the safer bet seems to be pursuing Okur rather than Boozer. Add to that the fact that Boozer is by no means a sure thing to stay in Utah, and that Okur staying is a much more likely thing, and you really have to believe that Okur over Boozer has to be the right choice.

I don’t think the Jazz can keep both Boozer and Okur because that leaves no defense in the lane. Unfortunately I don’t really see the Jazz picking up a shot-blocking center or power-forward either.

If the Jazz were to trade Carlos Boozer for Richard Hamilton, it would likely be with the assumption that they were going to replace Boozer with the much smaller Paul Millsap. Millsap is a workhorse, but I don’t see him really being able to replace what Boozer is capable of. Of course, Millsap would likely be healthier than Boozer, and 80 games of Millsap at a smaller price tag might well be better than 60 games of a higher-priced Boozer.

Of course, in addition to replacing Boozer with Millsap, the Jazz would also be getting Richard Hamilton.

In case people aren’t aware, Richard Hamilton is a tough player and a gym rat, constantly working on bettering himself — a player that Jerry Sloan would more than welcome on the roster. (Think the second coming of Jeff Hornacek.)

At 31, he’s probably at the peak of his career and on his way down the other side. For the kind of money that Jazz would be investing in Hamilton, this might be more than the Jazz would like to invest in a player. On the other hand, if there were a player that the Jazz would want to invest this kind of money in, I can’t think of a better player than Rip Hamilton for the Jerry Sloan system.

With the addition of Hamilton, the subtraction of Boozer, and the keeping of Paul Millsap, the Utah Jazz would probably be looking at a starting roster of:

Deron Williams, PG
Richard Hamilton, SG
Andrei Kirilenko, SF
Paul Millsap, PF
Mehmet Okur, C

The second string would probably look like:

Eric Maynor, PG
Ronnie Brewer, SG
Kyle Korver, SF
Andei Kirilenko, PF
Kosta Koufos, C

Also in the mix would be CJ Miles, Matt Harpring, and Kryrylo Fensenko, but I’m not sure any of these players are likely to get time over any of the players I listed above. The only exception to that might be whether or not they keep or sign a point guard better than their rookie Eric Maynor.