In the time that I’ve taken off, the Jazz have gone from being a .500 team and a perennial loser on the road to being a winner more often than not — at home and on the road. Heck, so far in 2010 they’ve been one of the top teams in the NBA.

They’ve traded Matt Harpring, Eric Maynor, and Ronnie Brewer in two different trades.

The trade of Matt Harpring and Eric Maynor made a lot of sense. In fact, I’m not sure why the draft pick that became Eric Maynor wasn’t traded during the NBA Draft.

The Ronnie Brewer trade also made a lot of sense. With the resurgent Carlos Boozer, Kyle Korver, Wesley Matthews, and other players becoming free agents at the end of the season, Ronnie Brewer was not likely going to get the contract of a starting shooting guard (which his agent has indicated that he feels that he is worth). The Jazz really wouldn’t have been willing to pay that kind of money, especially when it appears that they have their shooting guard spot slotted for Wesley Matthews rather than Brewer. Knowing that Ronnie wasn’t going to really be pursued at the end of the season, they decided to cut bait now — and get a first round draft pick in the bargain. It’s probably for the best for Ronnie Brewer as well.

The Utah Jazz still appear to have problems playing down to mediocre teams — including the recent loss to the Sacramento Kings and tonight’s loss to the Los Angeles Clippers, especially on the road.

Of course, they won’t be playing against mediocre teams in the playoffs, so maybe it really doesn’t matter if they can beat these teams or not — except for the seeding from the regular season win-loss record.

Coming up soon, the Jazz will have to sign a free agent to replace Ronnie Brewer. According to the Collective Bargaining Agreement, the Jazz have to carry 13 players on their active roster, and by trading Brewer for a first round draft pick, they have dropped back down to only 12 players. It remains to be seen whether the Jazz will sign a savvy veteran to help anchor a young ball club or whether they will give another young D-Leaguer (a la Sundiata Gaines) a chance to make the Jazz roster.

Since everybody else is getting into the trade rumor arena, I figured it was time for me to throw my hat over the wall.

The Jazz could easily trade Carlos Boozer and CJ Miles (or Matt Harpring) to the New York Knicks for David Lee (via sign-and-trade) and Jared Jeffries.

Why would the Utah Jazz do it?

They wouldn’t need Millsap at this point, but they could keep him on as a backup if they didn’t mind the hefty up-front price tag. (His next 3 years were much more reasonable.) They would have a bigger player to play power forward at a nice salary of $8-9 million per year. Jared Jeffries is another big body to help them out. Carlos Boozer, his history of injuries, and his bad locker room influence would be gone. They would have a nice nucleus of young players at most of their positions for several years to come.

Why would the New York Knicks do it?

Jared Jeffries is one of the last multi-year contracts that the Knicks have on the books going into next year. They’d be taking back a multi-year contract in CJ Miles, but it would be less money than Jeffries’ current contract. They would also get the Bird-rights to Carlos Boozer, and a lineup of Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, and Carlos Boozer would be devastating indeed (if they could actually woo Wade and James away from their respective teams). If they really wanted to shed all the multi-year contracts, they could probably persuade Utah to trade Matt Harpring instead of CJ Miles (especially in light of the fact that Harpring might just be retiring this year anyway).

Let’s take a look at some of what the GMs thought (all answered anonymously and reported on NBA.com):

Predictions

The Utah Jazz are the overwhelming favorite to with the Northwest Division, getting 92.6% of the vote, but they don’t get any votes when it comes to winning the Western Conference or the NBA Finals in 2009.

Why is that?

In my opinion, it is because they play terrible defense, especially on the road. Teams that don’t play good defense rarely win in the finals, let alone make it there. If Utah can greatly improve their defense this year, they’ll have a chance. If they don’t, look for them to win 55+ games and be out in the second round.

You don’t need defense to win games in the regular season, but you do need it to win in the playoffs. Every GM knows that.

Players

Deron Williams is the only Utah Jazz player to even show his face in this part of the survey, and he only managed one vote for the question of “Who is the best point guard in the NBA?” Chris Paul got 88.9% of the vote.

Why is that?

I think everyone generally agrees that Chris Paul and Deron Williams are the best two point guards in the game, having just this year surpassed Steve Nash. Everyone also knows that Chris Paul’s stats are fantastic. New Orleans is as good as they are mainly because of Chris Paul.

I’ll agree with all of that.

What I don’t understand is why people don’t look at the head-to-head matchups between Paul and Williams and see that Williams has won more of those.

Is Chris Paul the best point guard in the NBA, but Deron Williams a better player than Chris Paul if the two are matched up?

Shouldn’t it be easier to judge a player when they are on the same court than when they are not?

Apparently not.

Chris Paul is deserving of accolades for his body of work, perhaps even more so than Deron Williams, but I can’t believe that head-to-head matchup shouldn’t mean anything.

After all, did we really know that the Celtics were that much better than the Lakers until they finally met in the finals last year and the Lakers offered up little more than a whimper?

Honestly, I do think this was probably a very hard call for most GMs, and Chris Paul probably barely edged out Deron Williams 29 times to make it look like it wasn’t even close when, in fact, it was.

Offseason Moves

Utah didn’t make any.

Rookies/International

Nobody thinks that Utah’s rookies will go very far this year, or in the next 5 years.

Why is that?

Some of it is probably the fact, that Utah didn’t draft very high, and there isn’t likely to be much playing time this year for the rookies considering the Jazz roster. Still, 5 years from now, one of Utah’s upcoming big men could be making some noise.

NBA GM’s also don’t think that Utah’s international players are the best players in the NBA, nor are they likely to do anything far above the norm in the upcoming campaign.

Why is that?

They are mostly looking at younger rookies. Okur and Kirilenko are apparently perceived to have shown us what they’ve got. Utah’s younger international aren’t perceived to be very likely to excel. I guess we’ll have to see, but I don’t think I’d count them out just yet. They’re both very young, and there could be ample room for a big man to get a nice starting gig in Utah in the next few years.

Defense

Surprisingly, Utah garnered no honors in this category.

Why is that?

I think the answer is obvious.

No shotblocking big men.
Kirilenko is more worried about offense now than defense.
They allow too many points per game.
They play horrible defense on the road.

Coaches

Jerry Sloan was 3rd place, behind (1st) Popovich and (2nd) Phil Jackson.

He was also 4th place for making good decisions in the game, 3rd place for being the best in the last two minutes, and 2nd for running the best offense.

Interestingly enough, he is also the third best coach for defense — too bad the players don’t necessarily follow his lead all the time.

He doesn’t ask for the honors. And honestly, third on this list is pretty dang good, especially considering the fact that he hasn’t won a Coach of the Year award… ever. Plus he is in the top for just about every coaching accolade you can possibly name.

We have a pretty good coach.

Another note is that Tyrone Corbin received a vote for the best assistant coach in the NBA.

Miscellaneous

Utah is perceived as having the best home-court advantage with 44.4% of the vote. Hurrah for us!

Some of our other players also get votes for:

Best Pure Shooter: Kyle Korver (4th) – 7.4%
Best Passer: Deron Williams (4th) – 3.7%
Best in the Open Court: Deron Williams (1 vote)
Does the Most with the Least: Carlos Boozer, Paul Millsap (1 vote each)
Toughest: Matt Harpring (3rd) – 7.4%

Not much.

Not that we expected much change for a team who was really good last year, losing to the Lakers in a series that they probably should have been able to win.

So what should we expect this year.

Well, with the latest preseason news of having Andrei Kirilenko coming off the bench, we are expecting a starting lineup of:

PG – Deron Williams
SG – Ronnie Brewer
SF – C.J. Miles
PF – Carlos Boozer
C – Mehmet Okur

I actually really like this lineup from an offensive standpoint, but I don’t believe that this unit will be able to accomplish much on defense. Williams is not a bad defender, but he certainly isn’t spectacular. Boozer and Okur really aren’t very good defensively, although against certain opponents they can be effective enough. Miles is an unknown. Brewer obviously a very good, especially for how young he is. His steals numbers speak for themselves.

What this really means is that they will have to rotate very well and play very good team defense or they are not going to be able to win on the road. Considering how poorly they played on the road this past season, they are going to have a difficult time this season, especially in the post-season.

The second unit is going to be a little more fuzzy, but knowing Jerry Sloan, I would expect a second team of:

PG – Brevin Knight
SG – Kyle Korver
SF – Andrei Kirilenko
PF – Paul Millsap
C – Jarron Collins

Although Ronnie Price is a fan favorite, Sloan will probably prefer steady experience and fantastic assist-to-turnover ratio over Ronnie Price’s speed and much better shooting. With Korver, Kirilenko, and Millsap on the floor, a good distributor like Knight will be a great asset. If those three struggle shooting, though, expect a quick look to bring in Harping, Almond, or Price to improve the shooting of the second unit. Jazz fans tend to bad mouth Jarron Collins, but Collins is a great center for the price, and he plays excellent position defense on opposing centers.

As far as defense goes, the second unit is much tougher than the first unit. Knight is a very good defender with a large amount of steals per 48 minutes every year. Kirilenko is one of the best defenders in the leagues if he wants to be. And also is a very good defensive center. Millsap isn’t a bad defender, though he is a bit short against some of the large power forwards in the league. And Korver honestly isn’t a horrible defender, although he has been much maligned over his career.

The third unit would then be (not that they will get much time):

PG – Ronnie Price
SG – Matt Harpring
SF – Morris Almond
PF – (Andrei Kirilenko sliding over to play PF)
C – Kyrylo Fesenko or Kosta Koufos (depend on who Sloan thinks is the readiest at the moment)

Despite a very real possibility that there will be no available playing time for these players, you still have a really good team at this level.

Price is good, though at times a little out of control. Nobody can fault his timely shooting touch, though.

Harpring has lost a step, but he is still tough and a good team leader.

Almond can really shoot the ball — from everywhere on the court — and he is really working on his defense.

Two more big but inexperienced centers could get some time if Boozer or Okur get in early foul trouble. When you watch Fesenko, you hope that he can get some playing time because his height and energy could be a huge asset to the Jazz lineup. He was certainly worth the risk of picking him up in the second round and signing him to a contract, for potential alone. Hopefully the Jazz can develop Fesenko and Koufos because both of them could make for very good centers in the next couple of years.

The main reason that they said they chose to match the offer sheet was that they had invested 3 years in him and they figured that he was now at the point where he knew the system and could start making a valuable contribution.

Jazz fans and sportswriters are likely scratching their heads at this decision. They invested a lot in BYU product Rafael Araujo, but they let him go.

There has got to be a little more to this story than just “return on investment”.

Let’s take a look at things a little bit closer.

Here are the facts (involving C.J. Miles):

1. The Utah Jazz have plenty of money to play the annual amount of the Miles contract over the upcoming year. The big problem comes in year 2 when they are going to have to give extensions and raises to some almost all of their key guys.
2. The Utah Jazz have enough room on the roster for C.J. Miles (just barely).
3. C.J. Miles knows the Jazz system.
4. The Jazz, with the current lineup, might be good enough to win it all next year. They were very close this year.

Here are the Utah Jazz salaries (as near as we can guess) for 2009-2010:

Andrei Kirilenko – $16.5 million
Deron Williams – ~$15 million
Matt Harpring – $6.5 million
Kyle Korver – $5.2 million
C.J. Miles – ~$3 million
Ronnie Brewer – $2.7 million
Kosta Koufos – $1.2 million
Morris Almond – $1.1 million
Kryrylo Fesenko – $0.8 million

For approximately $52 million (I had to guess on the new contracts for Williams and Miles)

FYI, the salary cap for that year will probably be right around $60 million, leaving just $8 million to spend to stay under the cap.

If you haven’t noticed, you still aren’t paying Boozer, Okur, Jarron Collins, Brevin Knight, Ronnie Price, and Paul Millsap, all of whom are free agents or can opt-out after this year.

You will probably have to pay Carlos Boozer near the $15 million that you offered Deron Williams. Okur and Millsap might well command $10 million salaries based on what Andris Biedrins and Monta Ellis got from Golden State.

And that doesn’t count trying to keep Collins, Knight, and Price who luckily would come in at much more pedestrian $2 million per year each.

What are the Jazz planning?

I’m really not sure, but the numbers certainly don’t add up after this year.

Perhaps they are trying for one last hurrah before the team has to go its separate ways for salary cap reasons. They certainly could let Boozer, Okur, and Millsap depart after next season and be just fine. They aren’t under any sort of contract to keep them (as long as Boozer and Okur opt-out of their contracts, as they are expected to do). If they let them all go and move Kirilenko to the 4, they would have Williams at the 1, Brewer/Korver/Miles/Harpring/Almond (at the 2 and 3), Kirilenko at the 4, and Koufos/Fesenko at the 5. Certainly not a championship-caliber team, but with Williams at the helm, it is certainly one that could win a lot of games. By re-signing Jaron Collins for a couple of million per year, they have someone to sub at center and power forward (and a similar argument could be made to keep Price and/or Knight on to back up Williams at PG), without surpassing the Salary Cap.

Perhaps they are planning on trading some of their salaries after next year. Matt Harpring’s expiring $6.5 million would definitely be tradeable, but would probably involve receiving other long-term salaries in return unless they can work some deals involving draft picks (like the Nuggets did for Marcus Camby this year). A more likely scenario would be that Harpring’s salary is used to grab some good player that took the mid-level exception from a championship caliber team, but now the team wants to get involved in the Lebron/Wade/Bosh sweepstakes and has to cut salary fast.

Perhaps they think they can find a taker for Andrei Kirilenko’s whopping contract. Since they would likely have to take back contracts in return, however, that doesn’t seem like it would help the situation out unless the trade happened this year instead of next — and involved $16 million in expiring contracts. Kirilenko is a great defensive player and an energy guy that almost every team needs (but just not necessarily for the nearly $50 million and three years left on his contract).

Perhaps Larry H. Miller is willing to venture into Luxury Tax territory and re-sign most of these guys, if they are competing for championships year after year. Larry has certainly mentioned in the past that he would be willing to do that for a championship-caliber team.

Maybe the Jazz wanted C.J.’s contract to be possibly involved in a trade later on. Rather than giving him away for nothing, they can use his rather manageable contract packaged within another trade to make the numbers match, if they need to. Just because they signed him, doesn’t mean that they can never trade him. They just have to wait a period of time before his contract becomes tradeable, and that would happen sometime before the trade deadline.