My estimation so far is not very far. Into the playoffs, if they’re lucky. Outside looking in if they aren’t.

First of all, what problems have they had in the past.

• They can’t win on the road.
• They have trouble winning close games.
• Recently, they have had trouble with injuries.

What problems have they had this year?

• They are not winning on the road, even against chumps like the Sacramento Kings.
• They are rolling over in the fourth quarter if the team is putting up much of a fight.
• Kyle Korver and CJ Miles, two of their top 8 players, are injured, and Okur has already missed a little time from injury as well.

The only team of the top nine teams in the West from last year that is looking equal to or worse than the Jazz at this point is the New Orleans Hornets. (And the jury is still out on San Antonio who I have seen start slow only to pour it on when it really mattered.)

Is there any hope?

I don’t think Kevin O’Connor is going to trade Boozer. His contract expiring is going to allow the Jazz to dive back under the salary cap. I don’t imagine any of the current Jazz players are going to suddenly get really good at defense.

On the other hand, I don’t think the Jazz are going to be nearly as injured as they were last year, when they managed to sneak in at the eighth spot. That means that although the Jazz aren’t going to be much better last year talent-wise, they ought to be much better as a team. That should translate into an offensive output much closer to two years ago, when they challenged for supremacy in the West, rather than last year.

Unfortunately for the Jazz, I don’t think that translates into the Western Conference finals. Their lack of offensive output on the road is going to be their downfall, and with much improved teams in the Northwest Division from two years ago (Portland and Denver), it is very likely that the Jazz will be in the seventh or eighth spot or our of the playoffs. With a road record as poor as theirs, it is not very likely that the Jazz will make it out of the first round let alone into the Western Conference finals.

Would I have done anything differently over the past offseason?

I would have traded Carlos Boozer to the Bobcats for Emeka Okafor, assuming that trade was actually out there. This would have given me a defensive power forward/center to play alongside of the offensive-minded Mehmet Okur. I’m not sure why O’Connor is determined to only give Jerry Sloan offensive players who Jerry has to convince to play defense.

I would have let Paul Millsap go to Portland. He’s a nice backup power forward, and I really love his hustle, but he’s really too small to be my starter.

Those moves would have likely made it difficult to keep Ronnie Brewer, and I would have to be okay with that. I’d try to keep Kyle Korver around to spread the floor, if I could. I think Korver is likely to come cheaper than Brewer, and with Okur on one side and Korver on the other, it’d be very hard to defend. My defense would essentially just be Emeka Okafor in the center and Andrei Kirilenko around the perimiter, and I’d be okay with that.

So to compare, here is the likely team for next year:

• Deron Williams
• Ronnie Brewer
• Andrei Kirilenko or CJ Miles
• Paul Millsap
• Mehmet Okur

Here is what I would have had:

• Deron Williams
• Kyle Korver or CJ Miles
• Andrei Kirilenko
• Emeka Okafor
• Mehmet Okur

If defense helps you win road games and playoff games, I have to say that I’d win more road games next year (and this year for that matter) than what the Utah Jazz are likely to win for the next couple of years.

Carlos Boozer has one year left on his deal for $12.65 million.

Richard Hamilton has four years remaining on his deal, which will pay him $11.6 million this season, and $12.65 million each year for the next three years after that.

(Salaries according to HoopsHype.com)

Even straight up, my thoughts on this deal are that it is a good deal for both teams. (Probably why it actually became a rumor in the first place.)

Detroit Pistons

For Detroit, the Pistons just picked up Ben Gordon as their shooting guard. It’s hard to believe that they would want their two highest paid players to both play the same position. Even with Allen Iverson able to play some point guard, the Pistons have already proven that their Rip really can’t play with another shoot-first guard. With Ben Gordon rather weak at the point (Rodney Stuckey rumored to be their favorite to play the position), it isn’t likely that they will play both Gordon and Rip at the same time. With the trade of Chauncey Billups for Allen Iverson’s expiring contract, it appears that Detroit has already begun it’s youth movement. At 31, Rip Hamilton certainly doesn’t figure into that movement.

Whether Carlos Boozer figures into the long-term plans of the Pistons or not, the deal seems like a “can’t lose” for the Pistons. Knowing that the Pistons are likely more eager to make this trade, the Jazz might even try to weasel an extra first round draft pick out of them before they are willing to make this trade.

The Detroit Pistons starting lineup would likely be:

Rodney Stuckey, PG
Ben Gordon, SG
Tayshaun Prince, SF
Charlie Villanueva, PF
Carlos Boozer, C

Unless, of course, Prince comes off the bench and Villanueva and Boozer are moved to SF and PF respectively. Bother players would probably be more comfortable playing those positions, but they might not have that luxury. Kwame Brown would then likely be the center with Prince being the first man off the bench. (Antonio McDyess is rumored to be going elsewhere, and Rasheed Wallace has already agreed to sign with the Celtics.)

Utah Jazz

The Utah Jazz (with Korver, Boozer, and Okur all opting into their contracts) find themselves with three very good expiring contracts. Add Matt Harpring’s contract into that mix, and they certainly have a lot of good trade pieces that teams might want, especially if they are trying to cut costs in advance of 2010. Of course, the Jazz would have to really examine the contracts that they were taking back in return and deciding whether the players really fit into their plan of fitting pieces around Deron Williams in order to create a championship contender. It certainly doesn’t make any sense for them to take back expiring contracts or bad contracts for mediocre players in exchange for their current pieces.

My feeling is that Okur isn’t going anywhere. The things that he has said about his desire to remain with the Jazz, even if they can’t pay him the most, is exactly what the organization and the fans want to hear. In fact, I think the Jazz would be fools to not try to keep him if that’s his attitude.

Considering the Boozer is a 20-10 guy without breaking much of a sweat, I’d personally rather have a healthy Boozer over Okur and to have a shot-blocking center in place of Okur. Considering the fact that Boozer is not likely to play more than 60 games per year (because of injury) and considering the fact that shot-blocking centers are hard to come by in the NBA, the safer bet seems to be pursuing Okur rather than Boozer. Add to that the fact that Boozer is by no means a sure thing to stay in Utah, and that Okur staying is a much more likely thing, and you really have to believe that Okur over Boozer has to be the right choice.

I don’t think the Jazz can keep both Boozer and Okur because that leaves no defense in the lane. Unfortunately I don’t really see the Jazz picking up a shot-blocking center or power-forward either.

If the Jazz were to trade Carlos Boozer for Richard Hamilton, it would likely be with the assumption that they were going to replace Boozer with the much smaller Paul Millsap. Millsap is a workhorse, but I don’t see him really being able to replace what Boozer is capable of. Of course, Millsap would likely be healthier than Boozer, and 80 games of Millsap at a smaller price tag might well be better than 60 games of a higher-priced Boozer.

Of course, in addition to replacing Boozer with Millsap, the Jazz would also be getting Richard Hamilton.

In case people aren’t aware, Richard Hamilton is a tough player and a gym rat, constantly working on bettering himself — a player that Jerry Sloan would more than welcome on the roster. (Think the second coming of Jeff Hornacek.)

At 31, he’s probably at the peak of his career and on his way down the other side. For the kind of money that Jazz would be investing in Hamilton, this might be more than the Jazz would like to invest in a player. On the other hand, if there were a player that the Jazz would want to invest this kind of money in, I can’t think of a better player than Rip Hamilton for the Jerry Sloan system.

With the addition of Hamilton, the subtraction of Boozer, and the keeping of Paul Millsap, the Utah Jazz would probably be looking at a starting roster of:

Deron Williams, PG
Richard Hamilton, SG
Andrei Kirilenko, SF
Paul Millsap, PF
Mehmet Okur, C

The second string would probably look like:

Eric Maynor, PG
Ronnie Brewer, SG
Kyle Korver, SF
Andei Kirilenko, PF
Kosta Koufos, C

Also in the mix would be CJ Miles, Matt Harpring, and Kryrylo Fensenko, but I’m not sure any of these players are likely to get time over any of the players I listed above. The only exception to that might be whether or not they keep or sign a point guard better than their rookie Eric Maynor.

Let’s take a look at some of what the GMs thought (all answered anonymously and reported on NBA.com):

Predictions

The Utah Jazz are the overwhelming favorite to with the Northwest Division, getting 92.6% of the vote, but they don’t get any votes when it comes to winning the Western Conference or the NBA Finals in 2009.

Why is that?

In my opinion, it is because they play terrible defense, especially on the road. Teams that don’t play good defense rarely win in the finals, let alone make it there. If Utah can greatly improve their defense this year, they’ll have a chance. If they don’t, look for them to win 55+ games and be out in the second round.

You don’t need defense to win games in the regular season, but you do need it to win in the playoffs. Every GM knows that.

Players

Deron Williams is the only Utah Jazz player to even show his face in this part of the survey, and he only managed one vote for the question of “Who is the best point guard in the NBA?” Chris Paul got 88.9% of the vote.

Why is that?

I think everyone generally agrees that Chris Paul and Deron Williams are the best two point guards in the game, having just this year surpassed Steve Nash. Everyone also knows that Chris Paul’s stats are fantastic. New Orleans is as good as they are mainly because of Chris Paul.

I’ll agree with all of that.

What I don’t understand is why people don’t look at the head-to-head matchups between Paul and Williams and see that Williams has won more of those.

Is Chris Paul the best point guard in the NBA, but Deron Williams a better player than Chris Paul if the two are matched up?

Shouldn’t it be easier to judge a player when they are on the same court than when they are not?

Apparently not.

Chris Paul is deserving of accolades for his body of work, perhaps even more so than Deron Williams, but I can’t believe that head-to-head matchup shouldn’t mean anything.

After all, did we really know that the Celtics were that much better than the Lakers until they finally met in the finals last year and the Lakers offered up little more than a whimper?

Honestly, I do think this was probably a very hard call for most GMs, and Chris Paul probably barely edged out Deron Williams 29 times to make it look like it wasn’t even close when, in fact, it was.

Offseason Moves

Utah didn’t make any.

Rookies/International

Nobody thinks that Utah’s rookies will go very far this year, or in the next 5 years.

Why is that?

Some of it is probably the fact, that Utah didn’t draft very high, and there isn’t likely to be much playing time this year for the rookies considering the Jazz roster. Still, 5 years from now, one of Utah’s upcoming big men could be making some noise.

NBA GM’s also don’t think that Utah’s international players are the best players in the NBA, nor are they likely to do anything far above the norm in the upcoming campaign.

Why is that?

They are mostly looking at younger rookies. Okur and Kirilenko are apparently perceived to have shown us what they’ve got. Utah’s younger international aren’t perceived to be very likely to excel. I guess we’ll have to see, but I don’t think I’d count them out just yet. They’re both very young, and there could be ample room for a big man to get a nice starting gig in Utah in the next few years.

Defense

Surprisingly, Utah garnered no honors in this category.

Why is that?

I think the answer is obvious.

No shotblocking big men.
Kirilenko is more worried about offense now than defense.
They allow too many points per game.
They play horrible defense on the road.

Coaches

Jerry Sloan was 3rd place, behind (1st) Popovich and (2nd) Phil Jackson.

He was also 4th place for making good decisions in the game, 3rd place for being the best in the last two minutes, and 2nd for running the best offense.

Interestingly enough, he is also the third best coach for defense — too bad the players don’t necessarily follow his lead all the time.

He doesn’t ask for the honors. And honestly, third on this list is pretty dang good, especially considering the fact that he hasn’t won a Coach of the Year award… ever. Plus he is in the top for just about every coaching accolade you can possibly name.

We have a pretty good coach.

Another note is that Tyrone Corbin received a vote for the best assistant coach in the NBA.

Miscellaneous

Utah is perceived as having the best home-court advantage with 44.4% of the vote. Hurrah for us!

Some of our other players also get votes for:

Best Pure Shooter: Kyle Korver (4th) – 7.4%
Best Passer: Deron Williams (4th) – 3.7%
Best in the Open Court: Deron Williams (1 vote)
Does the Most with the Least: Carlos Boozer, Paul Millsap (1 vote each)
Toughest: Matt Harpring (3rd) – 7.4%

Not much.

Not that we expected much change for a team who was really good last year, losing to the Lakers in a series that they probably should have been able to win.

So what should we expect this year.

Well, with the latest preseason news of having Andrei Kirilenko coming off the bench, we are expecting a starting lineup of:

PG – Deron Williams
SG – Ronnie Brewer
SF – C.J. Miles
PF – Carlos Boozer
C – Mehmet Okur

I actually really like this lineup from an offensive standpoint, but I don’t believe that this unit will be able to accomplish much on defense. Williams is not a bad defender, but he certainly isn’t spectacular. Boozer and Okur really aren’t very good defensively, although against certain opponents they can be effective enough. Miles is an unknown. Brewer obviously a very good, especially for how young he is. His steals numbers speak for themselves.

What this really means is that they will have to rotate very well and play very good team defense or they are not going to be able to win on the road. Considering how poorly they played on the road this past season, they are going to have a difficult time this season, especially in the post-season.

The second unit is going to be a little more fuzzy, but knowing Jerry Sloan, I would expect a second team of:

PG – Brevin Knight
SG – Kyle Korver
SF – Andrei Kirilenko
PF – Paul Millsap
C – Jarron Collins

Although Ronnie Price is a fan favorite, Sloan will probably prefer steady experience and fantastic assist-to-turnover ratio over Ronnie Price’s speed and much better shooting. With Korver, Kirilenko, and Millsap on the floor, a good distributor like Knight will be a great asset. If those three struggle shooting, though, expect a quick look to bring in Harping, Almond, or Price to improve the shooting of the second unit. Jazz fans tend to bad mouth Jarron Collins, but Collins is a great center for the price, and he plays excellent position defense on opposing centers.

As far as defense goes, the second unit is much tougher than the first unit. Knight is a very good defender with a large amount of steals per 48 minutes every year. Kirilenko is one of the best defenders in the leagues if he wants to be. And also is a very good defensive center. Millsap isn’t a bad defender, though he is a bit short against some of the large power forwards in the league. And Korver honestly isn’t a horrible defender, although he has been much maligned over his career.

The third unit would then be (not that they will get much time):

PG – Ronnie Price
SG – Matt Harpring
SF – Morris Almond
PF – (Andrei Kirilenko sliding over to play PF)
C – Kyrylo Fesenko or Kosta Koufos (depend on who Sloan thinks is the readiest at the moment)

Despite a very real possibility that there will be no available playing time for these players, you still have a really good team at this level.

Price is good, though at times a little out of control. Nobody can fault his timely shooting touch, though.

Harpring has lost a step, but he is still tough and a good team leader.

Almond can really shoot the ball — from everywhere on the court — and he is really working on his defense.

Two more big but inexperienced centers could get some time if Boozer or Okur get in early foul trouble. When you watch Fesenko, you hope that he can get some playing time because his height and energy could be a huge asset to the Jazz lineup. He was certainly worth the risk of picking him up in the second round and signing him to a contract, for potential alone. Hopefully the Jazz can develop Fesenko and Koufos because both of them could make for very good centers in the next couple of years.

The main reason that they said they chose to match the offer sheet was that they had invested 3 years in him and they figured that he was now at the point where he knew the system and could start making a valuable contribution.

Jazz fans and sportswriters are likely scratching their heads at this decision. They invested a lot in BYU product Rafael Araujo, but they let him go.

There has got to be a little more to this story than just “return on investment”.

Let’s take a look at things a little bit closer.

Here are the facts (involving C.J. Miles):

1. The Utah Jazz have plenty of money to play the annual amount of the Miles contract over the upcoming year. The big problem comes in year 2 when they are going to have to give extensions and raises to some almost all of their key guys.
2. The Utah Jazz have enough room on the roster for C.J. Miles (just barely).
3. C.J. Miles knows the Jazz system.
4. The Jazz, with the current lineup, might be good enough to win it all next year. They were very close this year.

Here are the Utah Jazz salaries (as near as we can guess) for 2009-2010:

Andrei Kirilenko – $16.5 million
Deron Williams – ~$15 million
Matt Harpring – $6.5 million
Kyle Korver – $5.2 million
C.J. Miles – ~$3 million
Ronnie Brewer – $2.7 million
Kosta Koufos – $1.2 million
Morris Almond – $1.1 million
Kryrylo Fesenko – $0.8 million

For approximately $52 million (I had to guess on the new contracts for Williams and Miles)

FYI, the salary cap for that year will probably be right around $60 million, leaving just $8 million to spend to stay under the cap.

If you haven’t noticed, you still aren’t paying Boozer, Okur, Jarron Collins, Brevin Knight, Ronnie Price, and Paul Millsap, all of whom are free agents or can opt-out after this year.

You will probably have to pay Carlos Boozer near the $15 million that you offered Deron Williams. Okur and Millsap might well command $10 million salaries based on what Andris Biedrins and Monta Ellis got from Golden State.

And that doesn’t count trying to keep Collins, Knight, and Price who luckily would come in at much more pedestrian $2 million per year each.

What are the Jazz planning?

I’m really not sure, but the numbers certainly don’t add up after this year.

Perhaps they are trying for one last hurrah before the team has to go its separate ways for salary cap reasons. They certainly could let Boozer, Okur, and Millsap depart after next season and be just fine. They aren’t under any sort of contract to keep them (as long as Boozer and Okur opt-out of their contracts, as they are expected to do). If they let them all go and move Kirilenko to the 4, they would have Williams at the 1, Brewer/Korver/Miles/Harpring/Almond (at the 2 and 3), Kirilenko at the 4, and Koufos/Fesenko at the 5. Certainly not a championship-caliber team, but with Williams at the helm, it is certainly one that could win a lot of games. By re-signing Jaron Collins for a couple of million per year, they have someone to sub at center and power forward (and a similar argument could be made to keep Price and/or Knight on to back up Williams at PG), without surpassing the Salary Cap.

Perhaps they are planning on trading some of their salaries after next year. Matt Harpring’s expiring $6.5 million would definitely be tradeable, but would probably involve receiving other long-term salaries in return unless they can work some deals involving draft picks (like the Nuggets did for Marcus Camby this year). A more likely scenario would be that Harpring’s salary is used to grab some good player that took the mid-level exception from a championship caliber team, but now the team wants to get involved in the Lebron/Wade/Bosh sweepstakes and has to cut salary fast.

Perhaps they think they can find a taker for Andrei Kirilenko’s whopping contract. Since they would likely have to take back contracts in return, however, that doesn’t seem like it would help the situation out unless the trade happened this year instead of next — and involved $16 million in expiring contracts. Kirilenko is a great defensive player and an energy guy that almost every team needs (but just not necessarily for the nearly $50 million and three years left on his contract).

Perhaps Larry H. Miller is willing to venture into Luxury Tax territory and re-sign most of these guys, if they are competing for championships year after year. Larry has certainly mentioned in the past that he would be willing to do that for a championship-caliber team.

Maybe the Jazz wanted C.J.’s contract to be possibly involved in a trade later on. Rather than giving him away for nothing, they can use his rather manageable contract packaged within another trade to make the numbers match, if they need to. Just because they signed him, doesn’t mean that they can never trade him. They just have to wait a period of time before his contract becomes tradeable, and that would happen sometime before the trade deadline.