My estimation so far is not very far. Into the playoffs, if they’re lucky. Outside looking in if they aren’t.

First of all, what problems have they had in the past.

• They can’t win on the road.
• They have trouble winning close games.
• Recently, they have had trouble with injuries.

What problems have they had this year?

• They are not winning on the road, even against chumps like the Sacramento Kings.
• They are rolling over in the fourth quarter if the team is putting up much of a fight.
• Kyle Korver and CJ Miles, two of their top 8 players, are injured, and Okur has already missed a little time from injury as well.

The only team of the top nine teams in the West from last year that is looking equal to or worse than the Jazz at this point is the New Orleans Hornets. (And the jury is still out on San Antonio who I have seen start slow only to pour it on when it really mattered.)

Is there any hope?

I don’t think Kevin O’Connor is going to trade Boozer. His contract expiring is going to allow the Jazz to dive back under the salary cap. I don’t imagine any of the current Jazz players are going to suddenly get really good at defense.

On the other hand, I don’t think the Jazz are going to be nearly as injured as they were last year, when they managed to sneak in at the eighth spot. That means that although the Jazz aren’t going to be much better last year talent-wise, they ought to be much better as a team. That should translate into an offensive output much closer to two years ago, when they challenged for supremacy in the West, rather than last year.

Unfortunately for the Jazz, I don’t think that translates into the Western Conference finals. Their lack of offensive output on the road is going to be their downfall, and with much improved teams in the Northwest Division from two years ago (Portland and Denver), it is very likely that the Jazz will be in the seventh or eighth spot or our of the playoffs. With a road record as poor as theirs, it is not very likely that the Jazz will make it out of the first round let alone into the Western Conference finals.

Would I have done anything differently over the past offseason?

I would have traded Carlos Boozer to the Bobcats for Emeka Okafor, assuming that trade was actually out there. This would have given me a defensive power forward/center to play alongside of the offensive-minded Mehmet Okur. I’m not sure why O’Connor is determined to only give Jerry Sloan offensive players who Jerry has to convince to play defense.

I would have let Paul Millsap go to Portland. He’s a nice backup power forward, and I really love his hustle, but he’s really too small to be my starter.

Those moves would have likely made it difficult to keep Ronnie Brewer, and I would have to be okay with that. I’d try to keep Kyle Korver around to spread the floor, if I could. I think Korver is likely to come cheaper than Brewer, and with Okur on one side and Korver on the other, it’d be very hard to defend. My defense would essentially just be Emeka Okafor in the center and Andrei Kirilenko around the perimiter, and I’d be okay with that.

So to compare, here is the likely team for next year:

• Deron Williams
• Ronnie Brewer
• Andrei Kirilenko or CJ Miles
• Paul Millsap
• Mehmet Okur

Here is what I would have had:

• Deron Williams
• Kyle Korver or CJ Miles
• Andrei Kirilenko
• Emeka Okafor
• Mehmet Okur

If defense helps you win road games and playoff games, I have to say that I’d win more road games next year (and this year for that matter) than what the Utah Jazz are likely to win for the next couple of years.

Carlos Boozer has one year left on his deal for $12.65 million.

Richard Hamilton has four years remaining on his deal, which will pay him $11.6 million this season, and $12.65 million each year for the next three years after that.

(Salaries according to HoopsHype.com)

Even straight up, my thoughts on this deal are that it is a good deal for both teams. (Probably why it actually became a rumor in the first place.)

Detroit Pistons

For Detroit, the Pistons just picked up Ben Gordon as their shooting guard. It’s hard to believe that they would want their two highest paid players to both play the same position. Even with Allen Iverson able to play some point guard, the Pistons have already proven that their Rip really can’t play with another shoot-first guard. With Ben Gordon rather weak at the point (Rodney Stuckey rumored to be their favorite to play the position), it isn’t likely that they will play both Gordon and Rip at the same time. With the trade of Chauncey Billups for Allen Iverson’s expiring contract, it appears that Detroit has already begun it’s youth movement. At 31, Rip Hamilton certainly doesn’t figure into that movement.

Whether Carlos Boozer figures into the long-term plans of the Pistons or not, the deal seems like a “can’t lose” for the Pistons. Knowing that the Pistons are likely more eager to make this trade, the Jazz might even try to weasel an extra first round draft pick out of them before they are willing to make this trade.

The Detroit Pistons starting lineup would likely be:

Rodney Stuckey, PG
Ben Gordon, SG
Tayshaun Prince, SF
Charlie Villanueva, PF
Carlos Boozer, C

Unless, of course, Prince comes off the bench and Villanueva and Boozer are moved to SF and PF respectively. Bother players would probably be more comfortable playing those positions, but they might not have that luxury. Kwame Brown would then likely be the center with Prince being the first man off the bench. (Antonio McDyess is rumored to be going elsewhere, and Rasheed Wallace has already agreed to sign with the Celtics.)

Utah Jazz

The Utah Jazz (with Korver, Boozer, and Okur all opting into their contracts) find themselves with three very good expiring contracts. Add Matt Harpring’s contract into that mix, and they certainly have a lot of good trade pieces that teams might want, especially if they are trying to cut costs in advance of 2010. Of course, the Jazz would have to really examine the contracts that they were taking back in return and deciding whether the players really fit into their plan of fitting pieces around Deron Williams in order to create a championship contender. It certainly doesn’t make any sense for them to take back expiring contracts or bad contracts for mediocre players in exchange for their current pieces.

My feeling is that Okur isn’t going anywhere. The things that he has said about his desire to remain with the Jazz, even if they can’t pay him the most, is exactly what the organization and the fans want to hear. In fact, I think the Jazz would be fools to not try to keep him if that’s his attitude.

Considering the Boozer is a 20-10 guy without breaking much of a sweat, I’d personally rather have a healthy Boozer over Okur and to have a shot-blocking center in place of Okur. Considering the fact that Boozer is not likely to play more than 60 games per year (because of injury) and considering the fact that shot-blocking centers are hard to come by in the NBA, the safer bet seems to be pursuing Okur rather than Boozer. Add to that the fact that Boozer is by no means a sure thing to stay in Utah, and that Okur staying is a much more likely thing, and you really have to believe that Okur over Boozer has to be the right choice.

I don’t think the Jazz can keep both Boozer and Okur because that leaves no defense in the lane. Unfortunately I don’t really see the Jazz picking up a shot-blocking center or power-forward either.

If the Jazz were to trade Carlos Boozer for Richard Hamilton, it would likely be with the assumption that they were going to replace Boozer with the much smaller Paul Millsap. Millsap is a workhorse, but I don’t see him really being able to replace what Boozer is capable of. Of course, Millsap would likely be healthier than Boozer, and 80 games of Millsap at a smaller price tag might well be better than 60 games of a higher-priced Boozer.

Of course, in addition to replacing Boozer with Millsap, the Jazz would also be getting Richard Hamilton.

In case people aren’t aware, Richard Hamilton is a tough player and a gym rat, constantly working on bettering himself — a player that Jerry Sloan would more than welcome on the roster. (Think the second coming of Jeff Hornacek.)

At 31, he’s probably at the peak of his career and on his way down the other side. For the kind of money that Jazz would be investing in Hamilton, this might be more than the Jazz would like to invest in a player. On the other hand, if there were a player that the Jazz would want to invest this kind of money in, I can’t think of a better player than Rip Hamilton for the Jerry Sloan system.

With the addition of Hamilton, the subtraction of Boozer, and the keeping of Paul Millsap, the Utah Jazz would probably be looking at a starting roster of:

Deron Williams, PG
Richard Hamilton, SG
Andrei Kirilenko, SF
Paul Millsap, PF
Mehmet Okur, C

The second string would probably look like:

Eric Maynor, PG
Ronnie Brewer, SG
Kyle Korver, SF
Andei Kirilenko, PF
Kosta Koufos, C

Also in the mix would be CJ Miles, Matt Harpring, and Kryrylo Fensenko, but I’m not sure any of these players are likely to get time over any of the players I listed above. The only exception to that might be whether or not they keep or sign a point guard better than their rookie Eric Maynor.

They finished so well the last couple of years, I think a lot of us Jazz fans were thinking that his was going to be our year.

Oh, how wrong we were.

In case you are in a bubble for the last month, let me recap why the Utah Jazz are in trouble.

1. The Jazz play horribly against the Los Angeles Lakers, at least they have recently.
2. The Jazz allow top players to score at will. Kobe Bryant will score at will.
3. Boozer still has not fully recovered from his injury. He is well enough to play some time. The result is a hobbled Boozer taking valuable minutes from players who currently are playing better than he is. The Jazz aren’t about to make Booz mad as they hope to sign him for a long-term contract, so he’s sure to play and he’s sure to be a step slower on defense.
4. The Jazz limped into the playoffs, losing a whole bunch of games — all of which were important for them to stay out of the 8 spot.
5. The Jazz are not indestructible at home. Just ask the Warriors.
6. The Jazz won’t beat you on the road, unless Deron Williams has a vendetta against you because your name is Chris Paul.
7. The Jazz don’t do well against top three point shooting teams. The Lakers are very good three point shooters.
8. The Jazz don’t do well against big, strong post men. They don’t have a good shotblocker in the post, and their center and power forward are a bit undersized — especially for the defensive end. The Lakers have a big, strong center and a tall and versatile power forward.
9. Is Deron Williams going to improve his turnovers? Not this year.

Do the Jazz have a chance?

Their only chance was to play well enough in the final 10 games to squeak into a 6 or 7 spot and allow someone else the opportunity to take out the Lakers.

Where they sit now, the Jazz, sorrowfully, are going to be hard-pressed to win more than one game.

As we enter February, we hear reports that the Jazz are on the mend and that we might begin to see some of the players after the All-Star break. We are mildly annoyed with the fact that Deron Williams won’t be playing in the All-Star Game, but we console ourselves with the fact that he will be getting much needed rest and that the All-Star Game really doesn’t matter anyway.

A favorable home schedule certainly helped the Jazz to the 10-1 record in February, but we can’t overlook the fact that the Jazz are starting to get healthy again.

Boozer has even retaken the floor again.

It’s amazing how good the Jazz are if they can play their regular rotation. They are deep, they are young, they are athletic, and they can really compete with anyone, at least in their own building.

And it wasn’t like the Jazz played a cream-puff schedule either.

The Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Lakers, Boston Celtics, New Orleans Hornets, and the Atlanta Hawks all fell prey to the Utah Jazz in February.

And it was just announced that Jerry Sloan took home Coach of the Month honors for that month.

Not sure that he was really any more deserving that month than any other month, and I’m positive that he really doesn’t care, but good for Jerry.

Hopefully they can keep it up for March, but with 8 of their 14 games on the road including a stretch of five games @Toronto, @Indiana, @Atlanta, @Miami, and @Orlando (including Miami and Orlando on consecutive nights), don’t look for the Jazz to equal that feat. With the recent road woes, a great March with be 11 or 12 wins.

Let’s take a look at some of what the GMs thought (all answered anonymously and reported on NBA.com):

Predictions

The Utah Jazz are the overwhelming favorite to with the Northwest Division, getting 92.6% of the vote, but they don’t get any votes when it comes to winning the Western Conference or the NBA Finals in 2009.

Why is that?

In my opinion, it is because they play terrible defense, especially on the road. Teams that don’t play good defense rarely win in the finals, let alone make it there. If Utah can greatly improve their defense this year, they’ll have a chance. If they don’t, look for them to win 55+ games and be out in the second round.

You don’t need defense to win games in the regular season, but you do need it to win in the playoffs. Every GM knows that.

Players

Deron Williams is the only Utah Jazz player to even show his face in this part of the survey, and he only managed one vote for the question of “Who is the best point guard in the NBA?” Chris Paul got 88.9% of the vote.

Why is that?

I think everyone generally agrees that Chris Paul and Deron Williams are the best two point guards in the game, having just this year surpassed Steve Nash. Everyone also knows that Chris Paul’s stats are fantastic. New Orleans is as good as they are mainly because of Chris Paul.

I’ll agree with all of that.

What I don’t understand is why people don’t look at the head-to-head matchups between Paul and Williams and see that Williams has won more of those.

Is Chris Paul the best point guard in the NBA, but Deron Williams a better player than Chris Paul if the two are matched up?

Shouldn’t it be easier to judge a player when they are on the same court than when they are not?

Apparently not.

Chris Paul is deserving of accolades for his body of work, perhaps even more so than Deron Williams, but I can’t believe that head-to-head matchup shouldn’t mean anything.

After all, did we really know that the Celtics were that much better than the Lakers until they finally met in the finals last year and the Lakers offered up little more than a whimper?

Honestly, I do think this was probably a very hard call for most GMs, and Chris Paul probably barely edged out Deron Williams 29 times to make it look like it wasn’t even close when, in fact, it was.

Offseason Moves

Utah didn’t make any.

Rookies/International

Nobody thinks that Utah’s rookies will go very far this year, or in the next 5 years.

Why is that?

Some of it is probably the fact, that Utah didn’t draft very high, and there isn’t likely to be much playing time this year for the rookies considering the Jazz roster. Still, 5 years from now, one of Utah’s upcoming big men could be making some noise.

NBA GM’s also don’t think that Utah’s international players are the best players in the NBA, nor are they likely to do anything far above the norm in the upcoming campaign.

Why is that?

They are mostly looking at younger rookies. Okur and Kirilenko are apparently perceived to have shown us what they’ve got. Utah’s younger international aren’t perceived to be very likely to excel. I guess we’ll have to see, but I don’t think I’d count them out just yet. They’re both very young, and there could be ample room for a big man to get a nice starting gig in Utah in the next few years.

Defense

Surprisingly, Utah garnered no honors in this category.

Why is that?

I think the answer is obvious.

No shotblocking big men.
Kirilenko is more worried about offense now than defense.
They allow too many points per game.
They play horrible defense on the road.

Coaches

Jerry Sloan was 3rd place, behind (1st) Popovich and (2nd) Phil Jackson.

He was also 4th place for making good decisions in the game, 3rd place for being the best in the last two minutes, and 2nd for running the best offense.

Interestingly enough, he is also the third best coach for defense — too bad the players don’t necessarily follow his lead all the time.

He doesn’t ask for the honors. And honestly, third on this list is pretty dang good, especially considering the fact that he hasn’t won a Coach of the Year award… ever. Plus he is in the top for just about every coaching accolade you can possibly name.

We have a pretty good coach.

Another note is that Tyrone Corbin received a vote for the best assistant coach in the NBA.

Miscellaneous

Utah is perceived as having the best home-court advantage with 44.4% of the vote. Hurrah for us!

Some of our other players also get votes for:

Best Pure Shooter: Kyle Korver (4th) – 7.4%
Best Passer: Deron Williams (4th) – 3.7%
Best in the Open Court: Deron Williams (1 vote)
Does the Most with the Least: Carlos Boozer, Paul Millsap (1 vote each)
Toughest: Matt Harpring (3rd) – 7.4%