My estimation so far is not very far. Into the playoffs, if they’re lucky. Outside looking in if they aren’t.

First of all, what problems have they had in the past.

• They can’t win on the road.
• They have trouble winning close games.
• Recently, they have had trouble with injuries.

What problems have they had this year?

• They are not winning on the road, even against chumps like the Sacramento Kings.
• They are rolling over in the fourth quarter if the team is putting up much of a fight.
• Kyle Korver and CJ Miles, two of their top 8 players, are injured, and Okur has already missed a little time from injury as well.

The only team of the top nine teams in the West from last year that is looking equal to or worse than the Jazz at this point is the New Orleans Hornets. (And the jury is still out on San Antonio who I have seen start slow only to pour it on when it really mattered.)

Is there any hope?

I don’t think Kevin O’Connor is going to trade Boozer. His contract expiring is going to allow the Jazz to dive back under the salary cap. I don’t imagine any of the current Jazz players are going to suddenly get really good at defense.

On the other hand, I don’t think the Jazz are going to be nearly as injured as they were last year, when they managed to sneak in at the eighth spot. That means that although the Jazz aren’t going to be much better last year talent-wise, they ought to be much better as a team. That should translate into an offensive output much closer to two years ago, when they challenged for supremacy in the West, rather than last year.

Unfortunately for the Jazz, I don’t think that translates into the Western Conference finals. Their lack of offensive output on the road is going to be their downfall, and with much improved teams in the Northwest Division from two years ago (Portland and Denver), it is very likely that the Jazz will be in the seventh or eighth spot or our of the playoffs. With a road record as poor as theirs, it is not very likely that the Jazz will make it out of the first round let alone into the Western Conference finals.

Would I have done anything differently over the past offseason?

I would have traded Carlos Boozer to the Bobcats for Emeka Okafor, assuming that trade was actually out there. This would have given me a defensive power forward/center to play alongside of the offensive-minded Mehmet Okur. I’m not sure why O’Connor is determined to only give Jerry Sloan offensive players who Jerry has to convince to play defense.

I would have let Paul Millsap go to Portland. He’s a nice backup power forward, and I really love his hustle, but he’s really too small to be my starter.

Those moves would have likely made it difficult to keep Ronnie Brewer, and I would have to be okay with that. I’d try to keep Kyle Korver around to spread the floor, if I could. I think Korver is likely to come cheaper than Brewer, and with Okur on one side and Korver on the other, it’d be very hard to defend. My defense would essentially just be Emeka Okafor in the center and Andrei Kirilenko around the perimiter, and I’d be okay with that.

So to compare, here is the likely team for next year:

• Deron Williams
• Ronnie Brewer
• Andrei Kirilenko or CJ Miles
• Paul Millsap
• Mehmet Okur

Here is what I would have had:

• Deron Williams
• Kyle Korver or CJ Miles
• Andrei Kirilenko
• Emeka Okafor
• Mehmet Okur

If defense helps you win road games and playoff games, I have to say that I’d win more road games next year (and this year for that matter) than what the Utah Jazz are likely to win for the next couple of years.

Trade Scenario One

Carlos Boozer to Chicago and CJ Miles to Detroit along with Chicago’s Kirk Hinrich. The Utah Jazz would get back Rip Hamilton from Detroit and Tyrus Thomas from Chicago.

The Pluses
Detroit gets a real point guard (I’m skeptical about Stuckey). They also get CJ Miles who has yet to live up to predictions, but he is still very young.

Chicago gets Carlos Boozer for an expendable Hinrich and an underachieving Tyrus Thomas.

Utah gets the now expendable Rip Hamilton and Tyrus Thomas, giving them a great shooter and an up-and-coming defensive presence at the four. For the coming year, that makes them a better team, both offensively and defensively.

The Minuses

I don’t really see any minuses for Detroit. They get two very useful players with decent contracts for Rip’s monster contract. With Ben Gordon under contract, Rip Hamilton no longer makes sense.

Chicago essentially trades a valuable young defensive player in Tyrus Thomas for the injury prone Carlos Boozer. Can Boozer stay healthy? If he can, he’ll most likely be better than Thomas for the foreseeable future, but that’s a big “if”. The fact that they get to try him out for a year in exchange for Thomas seems a good deal.

These contracts don’t really save Utah any money for signing Millsap. Rip Hamilton’s contract still has a lot of years left on it. (I think he’ll still be playing at a high level, but his minutes are beginning to pile up. Of course, if anyone can manage Rip’s minutes well and give him a longer career, it’s Jerry Sloan.) If they let Millsap go to Portland, they’d probably be fine financially, but I don’t really see the Jazz doing that. Of course, they might be fine anyway, since a year from now, they have a couple more contracts come off the book, and a much easier time trading Andrei Kirilenko’s expiring contract.

Trade Scenario Two

Utah trades Carlos Boozer to the Chicago Bulls and Andrei Kirilenko to the Houston Rockets. The Rockets trade Tracy McGrady and Luis Scola to the Jazz. Chicago trades Brad Miller to Houston.

The Pluses

I don’t think there is any way the Chicago doesn’t trade Brad Miller for Carlos Boozer. That’s a no-brainer.

Houston gets Brad Miller for a year to replace Yao Ming. He’s no real replacement for Yao, but nobody other than Dwight Howard really is. They also get Kirilenko, who will give them something, rather than McGrady, who will likely give them nothing. Essentially they salvage the season, assuming that they really want to.

The Utah Jazz essentially are trading Boozer for Scola and a whole bunch of freed up money next year. They guarantee themselves that they won’t be in the luxury more than a single year. They can even re-sign Millsap without qualms if they want to (though Scola is likely a better starting power forward than Paul Millsap.)

The Minuses

There’s no way Chicago doesn’t make this trade.

Trading Scola would hurt, but Carl Landry is a very good power forward too. They’re much better with somebody playing center than nobody playing center. They also are much better with Kirilenko than McGrady. Of course, it’s all up to whether Houston really wants to compete or if they are happy tanking games for a good draft pick. In a bad economy, I would think that they would want to make sure their fans are seeing some wins and keeping butts in the seats. Yao’s and McGrady’s injuries really make it a “no win” situation.

I can’t see why the Jazz wouldn’t trade Boozer and Kirilenko for Scola and tax relief. Seems like a no-brainer to me.

Trade Scenario Three

The Utah Jazz trades Carlos Boozer to Chicago and CJ Miles and Matt Harpring to the Los Angeles Clippers. The Clippers trade Marcus Camby to the Utah Jazz. The Chicago Bulls trade Jerome James and Tyrus Thomas to the Utah Jazz.

The Pluses

The Chicago Bulls get rid of Jerome James’ contract and get Boozer for Tyrus Thomas. We’ve already discussed why this might be good and bad.

The Los Angeles Clippers get rid of Marcus Camby, who is unnecessary and would probably take away valuable time from Blake Griffin. If they’re worried about being a little slim on the front line after trading away Camby and Zach Randolph, they could simply sign some backup big men for the veteran’s minimum. They get CJ Miles, a young player with a small contract and good potential, and Harpring, who is likely to simply retire anyway. With the Clippers’ owner being very financially-minded, this deal makes financial sense.

The Utah Jazz get one of the best defensive players in the NBA in Marcus Camby and an up-and-coming defensive player in Tyrus Thomas. They also get Jerome James, who they could keep for depth in the front line or buy out. None of the contracts are for longer than a year, unless the Jazz extend the contracts, so there isn’t much risk.

The Minuses

The only minus for Chicago is letting go of Tyrus Thomas.

The Clippers don’t really get better from this move, they get worse. They also most likely save money and give valuable time to Blake Griffin.

I don’t see any minuses for the Jazz. None of the contracts are long. The Jazz get much better defensively.

Here are a couple of trade scenarios that might work for the Jazz, especially considering that they Jazz have made it known that they have to trade Boozer (thus reducing the amount they can get from him).

With the Miami Heat

1. Carlos Boozer to Miami for Udonis Haslem and others (e.g. Chris Quinn, and Dorell Wright)

Miami probably makes out better in this deal, but Utah gets rid of Boozer, gets a capable PF in Haslem (who would probably be languishing on the bench behind Beasley and Boozer) and a nice backup for Deron Williams in Chris Quinn (since the Jazz want a third PG). Plus they save some money ($1.5 million) to help pay down the luxury tax. Because Quinn and Wright are so young, it’s hard to say who might get the better end of this deal.

This one might be plausible because Boozer has a lot of ties to Miami and Dwyane Wade has publicly said that he would like Miami management to go after Boozer.

With the Chicago Bulls

1. Carlos Boozer to Chicago for Tyrus Thomas and Tim Thomas.

Much has been said about the three-way trade, but an equally valid trade can be made with Chicago alone for Tyrus Thomas. The Jazz would save $1.4 million and would get back two power forwards in return to shore up their front line.

2. Carlos Boozer and CJ Miles for Brad Miller and Linton Johnson.

In a much more drastic cost-cutting maneuver, the Jazz could get Brad Miller and save $3 million. Miller is in the last year of his contract so he might be able to be re-signed next year for much less to help out in the post, or be let go.

The Jazz would definitely want to re-sign Millsap if they took this one, as Brad Miller is definitely not a long-term solution. He would provide toughness on the front line for as long as the Jazz could keep him, though.

With the Philadelphia 76ers

1. Carlos Boozer and CJ Miles for Samuel Dalembert and Jason Smith.

Another cost-cutting maneuver by the Jazz, saving them $3 million. This move also allows the Jazz to bring in a shot-blocker to play next to Okur and cover up for his deficiencies. If the 76ers threw in a draft pick or money, it might almost make it even.

The Jazz could do a smiliar move with the Phoenix Suns for Ben Wallace, but Ben Wallace is not as good as Dalembert, in my book.

With the Cleveland Cavaliers

1. Carlos Boozer for Zydrunas Ilgauskis

With the acquisition of Shaq, Ilguaskis is no longer needed. I’m not sure Okur and Ilgauskis are the best pairing, but Ilgauskis is 7’3″ and can block some shots. Heck, who knows? Maybe Okur, Ilgauskis, and Kirilenko are a perfect fit. Either way, I think it’s worth a try. The Jazz do save a little money on it, too, to help pay for Millsap.

I would think Cleveland would welcome the move, because it really makes them the favorite in the East, maybe even enough to throw in a draft pick to get it done.

This one probably wouldn’t happen, because of the history, but it makes perfect sense.

Since everybody else is getting into the trade rumor arena, I figured it was time for me to throw my hat over the wall.

The Jazz could easily trade Carlos Boozer and CJ Miles (or Matt Harpring) to the New York Knicks for David Lee (via sign-and-trade) and Jared Jeffries.

Why would the Utah Jazz do it?

They wouldn’t need Millsap at this point, but they could keep him on as a backup if they didn’t mind the hefty up-front price tag. (His next 3 years were much more reasonable.) They would have a bigger player to play power forward at a nice salary of $8-9 million per year. Jared Jeffries is another big body to help them out. Carlos Boozer, his history of injuries, and his bad locker room influence would be gone. They would have a nice nucleus of young players at most of their positions for several years to come.

Why would the New York Knicks do it?

Jared Jeffries is one of the last multi-year contracts that the Knicks have on the books going into next year. They’d be taking back a multi-year contract in CJ Miles, but it would be less money than Jeffries’ current contract. They would also get the Bird-rights to Carlos Boozer, and a lineup of Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, and Carlos Boozer would be devastating indeed (if they could actually woo Wade and James away from their respective teams). If they really wanted to shed all the multi-year contracts, they could probably persuade Utah to trade Matt Harpring instead of CJ Miles (especially in light of the fact that Harpring might just be retiring this year anyway).

Not much.

Not that we expected much change for a team who was really good last year, losing to the Lakers in a series that they probably should have been able to win.

So what should we expect this year.

PG – Deron Williams
SG – Ronnie Brewer
SF – C.J. Miles
PF – Carlos Boozer
C – Mehmet Okur

I actually really like this lineup from an offensive standpoint, but I don’t believe that this unit will be able to accomplish much on defense. Williams is not a bad defender, but he certainly isn’t spectacular. Boozer and Okur really aren’t very good defensively, although against certain opponents they can be effective enough. Miles is an unknown. Brewer obviously a very good, especially for how young he is. His steals numbers speak for themselves.

What this really means is that they will have to rotate very well and play very good team defense or they are not going to be able to win on the road. Considering how poorly they played on the road this past season, they are going to have a difficult time this season, especially in the post-season.

The second unit is going to be a little more fuzzy, but knowing Jerry Sloan, I would expect a second team of:

PG – Brevin Knight
SG – Kyle Korver
SF – Andrei Kirilenko
PF – Paul Millsap
C – Jarron Collins

Although Ronnie Price is a fan favorite, Sloan will probably prefer steady experience and fantastic assist-to-turnover ratio over Ronnie Price’s speed and much better shooting. With Korver, Kirilenko, and Millsap on the floor, a good distributor like Knight will be a great asset. If those three struggle shooting, though, expect a quick look to bring in Harping, Almond, or Price to improve the shooting of the second unit. Jazz fans tend to bad mouth Jarron Collins, but Collins is a great center for the price, and he plays excellent position defense on opposing centers.

As far as defense goes, the second unit is much tougher than the first unit. Knight is a very good defender with a large amount of steals per 48 minutes every year. Kirilenko is one of the best defenders in the leagues if he wants to be. And also is a very good defensive center. Millsap isn’t a bad defender, though he is a bit short against some of the large power forwards in the league. And Korver honestly isn’t a horrible defender, although he has been much maligned over his career.

The third unit would then be (not that they will get much time):

PG – Ronnie Price
SG – Matt Harpring
SF – Morris Almond
PF – (Andrei Kirilenko sliding over to play PF)
C – Kyrylo Fesenko or Kosta Koufos (depend on who Sloan thinks is the readiest at the moment)

Despite a very real possibility that there will be no available playing time for these players, you still have a really good team at this level.

Price is good, though at times a little out of control. Nobody can fault his timely shooting touch, though.

Harpring has lost a step, but he is still tough and a good team leader.

Almond can really shoot the ball — from everywhere on the court — and he is really working on his defense.

Two more big but inexperienced centers could get some time if Boozer or Okur get in early foul trouble. When you watch Fesenko, you hope that he can get some playing time because his height and energy could be a huge asset to the Jazz lineup. He was certainly worth the risk of picking him up in the second round and signing him to a contract, for potential alone. Hopefully the Jazz can develop Fesenko and Koufos because both of them could make for very good centers in the next couple of years.